Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing16/26, 143 YDS, 1 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing19 CAR, 60 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler LockettReceiving5 REC, 44 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing16/28, 150 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- J.K. DobbinsRushing18 CAR, 77 YDS
- Pat BryantReceiving1 REC, 43 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q30:05Wil Lutz 32 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q22:41Troy Franklin 7 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–7
- Q13:02Ashton Jeanty 4 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:02Ashton Jeanty 4 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 0 DEN · LV 23% → 41% +17LV 23% → 41%+17 pts
- Q22:41Troy Franklin 7 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)LV 7 – 7 DEN · DEN 50% → 72% +22DEN 50% → 72%+22 pts
- Q30:05Wil Lutz 32 Yd Field GoalLV 7 – 10 DEN · DEN 66% → 78% +13DEN 66% → 78%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -9.5
- ML LV +340 / DEN -450
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -13.5
- DEN 87%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.8 pts
- DEN: Elo 87.1%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -377
- LV +377 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 16.0 – 25.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1320 | 1649 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +38 | +4 | LV: Geno Smith · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +332 Elo | DEN 87.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 78.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 85.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 79.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3216.5 | Points scored | 25.014th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3226.3 | Points allowed | 18.44th of 32 |
| 30th of 32−9.8 | Margin | +6.68th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.00 | Yards per play | 5.4515th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.22 | Yards allowed per play | 4.451st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 145530th of 32 |
| 31st of 321320 | Elo rating | 16493rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 2–2 DEN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.