Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing23/34, 220 YDS, 1 INT
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing22 CAR, 84 YDS
- Parker WashingtonReceiving8 REC, 90 YDS
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing29/39, 284 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing13 CAR, 42 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving12 REC, 127 YDS, 3 TD
Scoring summary
- OT0:16Brock Bowers 2 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)30–29
- OT3:24Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)30–23
- Q40:16Cam Little 48 Yd Field Goal23–23
- Q41:52Brock Bowers 27 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)20–23
- Q44:06Bhayshul Tuten 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)20–16
- Q49:38Ashton Jeanty 15 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)13–16
- Q414:50Trevor Lawrence 7 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)13–9
- Q36:26Daniel Carlson 24 Yd Field Goal6–9
- Q39:53Cam Little 33 Yd Field Goal6–6
- Q20:00Cam Little 68 Yd Field Goal (Breaks NFL Record)3–6
- Q20:35Brock Bowers 7 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson PAT Failed)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:38Ashton Jeanty 15 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)JAX 13 – 16 LV · LV 25% → 66% +41LV 25% → 66%+41 pts
- Q44:06Bhayshul Tuten 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)JAX 20 – 16 LV · JAX 24% → 84% +59JAX 24% → 84%+59 pts
- Q41:52Brock Bowers 27 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)JAX 20 – 23 LV · LV 7% → 85% +78LV 7% → 85%+78 pts
- Q40:16Cam Little 48 Yd Field GoalJAX 23 – 23 LV · JAX <1% → 50% +50JAX <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT3:24Trevor Lawrence 1 Yd Rush (Cam Little Kick)JAX 30 – 23 LV · JAX 51% → 97% +46JAX 51% → 97%+46 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jaguars 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- JAX -1.5
- ML JAX -130 / LV +110
- Pre-line forecast
- JAX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- JAX -2.5
- JAX 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- JAX: Elo 59.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- JAX -121
- LV +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- JAX 23.0 – 21.5 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | JAX | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1326 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +37 | JAX: Trevor Lawrence · LV: Geno Smith, usually Aidan O'Connell (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | JAX +66 Elo | JAX 59.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | JAX 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | JAX 59.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | JAX 54.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| JAX | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3220.9 | Points scored | 14.731st of 32 |
| 13th of 3222.1 | Points allowed | 25.723rd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−1.3 | Margin | −11.031st of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.12 | Yards per play | 4.9227th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.52 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3016th of 32 |
| 13th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–226th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321548 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 32 |
| 21st of 321456 | Elo rating | 132631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  JAX |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
JAX 0–1 LV in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.