Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing16/27, 295 YDS, 2 TD
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing10 CAR, 34 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving8 REC, 162 YDS, 1 TD
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing27/42, 258 YDS, 2 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing12 CAR, 27 YDS
- Brian Thomas Jr.Receiving8 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q413:00Tim Patrick 26 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)20–12
- Q310:14Cooper Kupp 11 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)20–6
- Q20:10Jason Myers 53 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q28:34Jaxon Smith-Njigba 61 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)10–6
- Q210:38Jason Myers 24 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q11:14Brian Thomas Jr. 21 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little PAT Failed)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q11:14Brian Thomas Jr. 21 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little PAT Failed)SEA 0 – 6 JAX · JAX 48% → 65% +17JAX 48% → 65%+17 pts
- Q28:34Jaxon Smith-Njigba 61 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 10 – 6 JAX · SEA 42% → 64% +22SEA 42% → 64%+22 pts
- Q20:10Jason Myers 53 Yd Field GoalSEA 13 – 6 JAX · SEA 65% → 75% +9SEA 65% → 75%+9 pts
- Q310:14Cooper Kupp 11 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 20 – 6 JAX · SEA 76% → 92% +16SEA 76% → 92%+16 pts
- Q413:00Tim Patrick 26 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)SEA 20 – 12 JAX · JAX 3% → 13% +11JAX 3% → 13%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -1.5
- ML SEA -120 / JAX +100
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -0.5
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -109
- JAX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 24.5 – 23.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +21 | +12 | SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +17 Elo | SEA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 52.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3229.2 | Points scored | 25.410th of 32 |
| 11th of 3221.0 | Points allowed | 20.08th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+8.2 | Margin | +5.48th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.27 | Yards per play | 5.4215th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.00 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6022nd of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321489 | Opponent Elo | 150416th of 32 |
| 11th of 321555 | Elo rating | 151217th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.