Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing29/33, 379 YDS, 2 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing14 CAR, 41 YDS, 2 TD
- Emeka EgbukaReceiving7 REC, 163 YDS, 1 TD
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing28/34, 341 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing10 CAR, 86 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving8 REC, 132 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Chase McLaughlin 39 Yd Field Goal38–35
- Q41:08Sterling Shepard 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)35–35
- Q43:18Tory Horton 21 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)28–35
- Q49:48AJ Barner 6 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)28–28
- Q30:19Rachaad White 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)28–21
- Q34:12AJ Barner 2 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)21–21
- Q37:52Emeka Egbuka 20 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Baker Mayfield Pass to Emeka Egbuka for Two-Point Conversion)21–14
- Q313:01Zach Charbonnet 5 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)13–14
- Q20:06Jaxon Smith-Njigba 6 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)13–7
- Q22:09Rachaad White 7 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)13–0
- Q214:08Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q17:57Chase McLaughlin 30 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q30:19Rachaad White 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 28 – 21 SEA · TB 43% → 75% +33TB 43% → 75%+33 pts
- Q49:48AJ Barner 6 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)TB 28 – 28 SEA · SEA 17% → 56% +39SEA 17% → 56%+39 pts
- Q43:18Tory Horton 21 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)TB 28 – 35 SEA · SEA 53% → 98% +44SEA 53% → 98%+44 pts
- Q41:08Sterling Shepard 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 35 – 35 SEA · TB <1% → 48% +48TB <1% → 48%+48 pts
- Q40:00Chase McLaughlin 39 Yd Field GoalTB 38 – 35 SEA · TB 44% → 100% +56TB 44% → 100%+56 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -3.5
- ML TB +170 / SEA -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -3
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.3%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -178
- TB +178 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 21.0 – 24.5 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +13 | TB: Baker Mayfield · SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +80 Elo | SEA 61.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 64.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3224.3 | Points scored | 27.86th of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.3 | Points allowed | 16.82nd of 32 |
| 18th of 320.0 | Margin | +11.03rd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.17 | Yards per play | 5.738th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.58 | Yards allowed per play | 4.483rd of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–114th of 32 |
| 13th of 321511 | Opponent Elo | 147323rd of 32 |
| 12th of 321546 | Elo rating | 15787th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  TB |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–8 | 6–10 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–5 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–6 | 8–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.