Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors JAX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing21/33, 182 YDS, 5 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing12 CAR, 54 YDS
- Colby ParkinsonReceiving3 REC, 47 YDS
Jaguars- Trevor LawrencePassing23/48, 296 YDS, 1 TD
- Travis Etienne Jr.Rushing8 CAR, 44 YDS
- Travis HunterReceiving8 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:58Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)35–7
- Q49:06Travis Hunter 34 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)28–7
- Q411:11Terrance Ferguson 31 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)28–0
- Q24:37Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)21–0
- Q11:51Davante Adams 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)14–0
- Q16:38Konata Mumpfield 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:38Konata Mumpfield 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 7 – 0 JAX · LAR 61% → 77% +17LAR 61% → 77%+17 pts
- Q11:51Davante Adams 2 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 14 – 0 JAX · LAR 78% → 90% +12LAR 78% → 90%+12 pts
- Q24:37Davante Adams 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 21 – 0 JAX · LAR 92% → 98% +6LAR 92% → 98%+6 pts
- Q411:11Terrance Ferguson 31 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 28 – 0 JAX · LAR >99% → >99% +0LAR >99% → >99%+0 pts
- Q49:06Travis Hunter 34 Yd pass from Trevor Lawrence (Cam Little Kick)LAR 28 – 7 JAX · JAX <1% → <1% +0JAX <1% → <1%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -3.5
- ML LAR -175 / JAX +150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -3.5
- LAR 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- LAR: Elo 62.9%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- LAR -160
- JAX +160 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 23.5 – 20.0 JAX
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | JAX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | +11 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · JAX: Trevor Lawrence (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +92 Elo | LAR 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 62.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 61.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3223.3 | Points scored | 23.217th of 32 |
| 3rd of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 20.07th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.0 | Margin | +3.213th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.13 | Yards per play | 5.1722nd of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.63 | Yards allowed per play | 5.7226th of 32 |
| 14th of 321505 | Opponent Elo | 15269th of 32 |
| 9th of 321581 | Elo rating | 148619th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.