Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing17/26, 181 YDS, 1 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 50 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyler HigbeeReceiving4 REC, 40 YDS, 1 TD
Ravens- Cooper RushPassing11/19, 72 YDS, 1 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing24 CAR, 122 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving6 REC, 46 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q310:20Tyler Higbee 8 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)17–3
- Q311:52Kyren Williams 3 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)10–3
- Q29:50Joshua Karty 36 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:22Tyler Loop 37 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:22Tyler Loop 37 Yd Field GoalLAR 0 – 3 BAL · BAL 30% → 37% +7BAL 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q29:50Joshua Karty 36 Yd Field GoalLAR 3 – 3 BAL · LAR 59% → 68% +9LAR 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q311:52Kyren Williams 3 Yd Rush (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 10 – 3 BAL · LAR 65% → 85% +20LAR 65% → 85%+20 pts
- Q310:20Tyler Higbee 8 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)LAR 17 – 3 BAL · LAR 85% → 96% +11LAR 85% → 96%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -6.5
- ML LAR -280 / BAL +230
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -7.5
- LAR 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- LAR: Elo 74.9%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- LAR -247
- BAL +247 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAR 25.5 – 19.0 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1566 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +9 | −204 | LAR: Matthew Stafford · BAL: Cooper Rush, usually Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +190 Elo | LAR 74.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 71.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 71.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 3224.6 | Points scored | 28.26th of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.4 | Points allowed | 35.432nd of 32 |
| 13th of 32+3.2 | Margin | −7.225th of 32 |
| 1st of 326.36 | Yards per play | 6.244th of 32 |
| 6th of 324.78 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8128th of 32 |
| 10th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 32 |
| 15th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15682nd of 32 |
| 10th of 321566 | Elo rating | 155212th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 3–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 0–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 5–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAR 0–1 BAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.