San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Mac JonesPassing33/49, 342 YDS, 2 TD
- Christian McCaffreyRushing22 CAR, 57 YDS
- Kendrick BourneReceiving10 REC, 142 YDS
Rams- Matthew StaffordPassing30/47, 389 YDS, 3 TD
- Kyren WilliamsRushing14 CAR, 65 YDS
- Davante AdamsReceiving5 REC, 88 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT5:51Eddy Pineiro 41 Yd Field Goal26–23
- Q40:02Joshua Karty 48 Yd Field Goal23–23
- Q42:52Eddy Pineiro 59 Yd Field Goal23–20
- Q410:39Kyren Williams 8 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty PAT blocked)20–20
- Q33:45Puka Nacua 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)20–14
- Q36:33Eddy Pineiro 20 Yd Field Goal20–7
- Q20:00Eddy Pineiro 37 Yd Field Goal17–7
- Q22:09Kyren Williams 14 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)14–7
- Q213:44Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)14–0
- Q110:09Jake Tonges 6 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:45Puka Nacua 1 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty Kick)SF 20 – 14 LAR · LAR 15% → 41% +25LAR 15% → 41%+25 pts
- Q410:39Kyren Williams 8 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Joshua Karty PAT blocked)SF 20 – 20 LAR · LAR 29% → 63% +34LAR 29% → 63%+34 pts
- Q42:52Eddy Pineiro 59 Yd Field GoalSF 23 – 20 LAR · SF 43% → 76% +32SF 43% → 76%+32 pts
- Q40:02Joshua Karty 48 Yd Field GoalSF 23 – 23 LAR · LAR <1% → 51% +51LAR <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT5:51Eddy Pineiro 41 Yd Field GoalSF 26 – 23 LAR · SF 40% → 64% +24SF 40% → 64%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rams 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- LAR -8.5
- ML SF +340 / LAR -450
- Pre-line forecast
- LAR 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAR -10.5
- LAR 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- LAR: Elo 81.6%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- LAR -366
- SF +366 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 17.5 – 26.0 LAR
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | LAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1598 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −116 | +9 | SF: Mac Jones, usually Brock Purdy · LAR: Matthew Stafford (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAR +259 Elo | LAR 81.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAR 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAR 79.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAR 78.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | LAR |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3220.0 | Points scored | 25.013th of 32 |
| 7th of 3218.8 | Points allowed | 20.310th of 32 |
| 17th of 32+1.3 | Margin | +4.812th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.55 | Yards per play | 6.163rd of 32 |
| 6th of 324.60 | Yards allowed per play | 4.7410th of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 23rd of 321473 | Opponent Elo | 150812th of 32 |
| 16th of 321500 | Elo rating | 15986th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024) |  SF |  LAR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–11 | 11–7 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 3–7 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 0–4 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders | 9–5 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 1–3 LAR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.