Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing19/31, 188 YDS, 2 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing13 CAR, 41 YDS, 2 TD
- George PickensReceiving7 REC, 78 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing19/29, 247 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- J.K. DobbinsRushing15 CAR, 111 YDS
- Troy FranklinReceiving6 REC, 89 YDS, 2 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:44Jalen Tolbert 35 Yd pass from Joe Milton III (Brandon Aubrey Kick)24–44
- Q47:14RJ Harvey 5 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)17–44
- Q412:48Troy Franklin 7 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)17–37
- Q36:02Wil Lutz 42 Yd Field Goal17–30
- Q38:10Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–27
- Q20:39Pat Bryant 24 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)10–27
- Q23:47RJ Harvey 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)10–20
- Q27:29Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–14
- Q13:04Troy Franklin 25 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)3–14
- Q18:13RJ Harvey 40 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)3–7
- Q110:34Brandon Aubrey 24 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:13RJ Harvey 40 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)DAL 3 – 7 DEN · DEN 57% → 74% +17DEN 57% → 74%+17 pts
- Q13:04Troy Franklin 25 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DAL 3 – 14 DEN · DEN 73% → 87% +13DEN 73% → 87%+13 pts
- Q27:29Javonte Williams 1 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 10 – 14 DEN · DAL 12% → 27% +15DAL 12% → 27%+15 pts
- Q23:47RJ Harvey 1 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)DAL 10 – 20 DEN · DEN 73% → 87% +14DEN 73% → 87%+14 pts
- Q20:39Pat Bryant 24 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DAL 10 – 27 DEN · DEN 88% → 96% +9DEN 88% → 96%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -4.5
- ML DAL +175 / DEN -210
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4.5
- DEN 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 64.9%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -186
- DAL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 23.5 – 28.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1610 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +36 | +3 | DAL: Dak Prescott · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +107 Elo | DEN 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 68.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 65.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 65.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3231.7 | Points scored | 23.317th of 32 |
| 30th of 3229.4 | Points allowed | 18.14th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+2.3 | Margin | +5.110th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.12 | Yards per play | 5.3316th of 32 |
| 30th of 326.06 | Yards allowed per play | 4.492nd of 32 |
| 21st of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 22nd of 321481 | Opponent Elo | 146227th of 32 |
| 17th of 321506 | Elo rating | 16107th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.