New York Giants at Denver Broncos, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing15/33, 283 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Cam SkatteboRushing16 CAR, 60 YDS
- Wan'Dale RobinsonReceiving6 REC, 95 YDS
Broncos- Bo NixPassing27/50, 279 YDS, 2 TD
- J.K. DobbinsRushing14 CAR, 81 YDS
- Courtland SuttonReceiving6 REC, 87 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Wil Lutz 39 Yd Field Goal32–33
- Q40:37Jaxson Dart 1 Yd Rush (Jude McAtamney PAT Failed)32–30
- Q41:51Bo Nix 18 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)26–30
- Q43:51RJ Harvey 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)26–23
- Q45:13Bo Nix 7 Yd Rush (Bo Nix Pass to Troy Franklin for Two-Point Conversion)26–16
- Q410:14Theo Johnson 41 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jude McAtamney Kick)26–8
- Q414:08Troy Franklin 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Courtland Sutton for Two-Point Conversion)19–8
- Q32:41Tyrone Tracy Jr. 31 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–0
- Q28:46Cam Skattebo 13 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jude McAtamney PAT Failed)13–0
- Q16:54Daniel Bellinger 44 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jude McAtamney Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:46Cam Skattebo 13 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jude McAtamney PAT Failed)NYG 13 – 0 DEN · NYG 49% → 67% +18NYG 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q43:51RJ Harvey 2 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)NYG 26 – 23 DEN · DEN 1% → 29% +28DEN 1% → 29%+28 pts
- Q41:51Bo Nix 18 Yd Rush (Wil Lutz Kick)NYG 26 – 30 DEN · DEN 17% → 94% +77DEN 17% → 94%+77 pts
- Q40:37Jaxson Dart 1 Yd Rush (Jude McAtamney PAT Failed)NYG 32 – 30 DEN · NYG <1% → 88% +87NYG <1% → 88%+87 pts
- Q40:00Wil Lutz 39 Yd Field GoalNYG 32 – 33 DEN · DEN 0% → 100% +100DEN 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Broncos 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -7.5
- ML NYG +290 / DEN -380
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -11
- DEN 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.4 pts
- DEN: Elo 83.0%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- DEN -319
- NYG +319 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 16.5 – 24.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1406 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −36 | +1 | NYG: Jaxson Dart, usually Daniel Jones · DEN: Bo Nix (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +275 Elo | DEN 83.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 81.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 82.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 76.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 3220.2 | Points scored | 21.717th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3224.0 | Points allowed | 15.82nd of 32 |
| 24th of 32−3.8 | Margin | +5.88th of 32 |
| 25th of 325.00 | Yards per play | 5.3220th of 32 |
| 27th of 325.72 | Yards allowed per play | 4.271st of 32 |
| 27th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 6th of 321538 | Opponent Elo | 146527th of 32 |
| 26th of 321406 | Elo rating | 16086th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | — | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.