Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing24/33, 283 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Saquon BarkleyRushing12 CAR, 58 YDS
- Dallas GoedertReceiving9 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing17/25, 195 YDS, 1 TD
- Cam SkatteboRushing19 CAR, 98 YDS, 3 TD
- Wan'Dale RobinsonReceiving6 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q49:41Cam Skattebo 1 Yd Rush (Jude McAtamney Kick)17–34
- Q37:56Cam Skattebo 1 Yd Rush (Jude McAtamney Kick)17–27
- Q21:19Cam Skattebo 4 Yd Rush (Jude McAtamney Kick)17–20
- Q26:56Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)17–13
- Q11:49Dallas Goedert 3 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)10–13
- Q15:37Wan'Dale Robinson 35 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jude McAtamney PAT Failed)3–13
- Q19:59Jaxson Dart 20 Yd Rush (Jude McAtamney Kick)3–7
- Q111:59Jake Elliott 42 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:37Wan'Dale Robinson 35 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Jude McAtamney PAT Failed)PHI 3 – 13 NYG · NYG 33% → 49% +16NYG 33% → 49%+16 pts
- Q11:49Dallas Goedert 3 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 10 – 13 NYG · PHI 49% → 68% +19PHI 49% → 68%+19 pts
- Q26:56Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 17 – 13 NYG · PHI 64% → 82% +18PHI 64% → 82%+18 pts
- Q21:19Cam Skattebo 4 Yd Rush (Jude McAtamney Kick)PHI 17 – 20 NYG · NYG 18% → 39% +20NYG 18% → 39%+20 pts
- Q37:56Cam Skattebo 1 Yd Rush (Jude McAtamney Kick)PHI 17 – 27 NYG · NYG 43% → 71% +27NYG 43% → 71%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7.5
- ML PHI -400 / NYG +300
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -16.5
- PHI 91%
- Ratings vs. market
- +15.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 91.4%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -350
- NYG +350 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 24.5 – 17.0 NYG
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | NYG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1715 | 1325 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | −48 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · NYG: Jaxson Dart, usually Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +410 Elo | PHI 91.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 82.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 89.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 77.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 3225.0 | Points scored | 17.428th of 32 |
| 16th of 3221.8 | Points allowed | 25.422nd of 32 |
| 14th of 32+3.2 | Margin | −8.026th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.42 | Yards per play | 4.9025th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.33 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6623rd of 32 |
| 1st of 322–0 | Road vs home | 1–112th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321567 | Opponent Elo | 151812th of 32 |
| 1st of 321715 | Elo rating | 132530th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | — |
| Underdog | — | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 2–3 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–3 | 1–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–1 NYG in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.