Denver Broncos at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Broncos- Bo NixPassing18/37, 173 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- J.K. DobbinsRushing15 CAR, 61 YDS
- RJ HarveyReceiving5 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD
Texans- Davis MillsPassing17/30, 137 YDS
- Nick ChubbRushing11 CAR, 34 YDS
- Dalton SchultzReceiving6 REC, 77 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Wil Lutz 34 Yd Field Goal18–15
- Q412:28RJ Harvey 27 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Troy Franklin for Two-Point Conversion)15–15
- Q39:18Ka'imi Fairbairn 41 Yd Field Goal7–15
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 40 Yd Field Goal7–12
- Q21:52Ka'imi Fairbairn 38 Yd Field Goal7–9
- Q24:52Courtland Sutton 30 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)7–6
- Q27:11Ka'imi Fairbairn 41 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q10:04Ka'imi Fairbairn 23 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:52Courtland Sutton 30 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick)DEN 7 – 6 HOU · DEN 28% → 50% +22DEN 28% → 50%+22 pts
- Q21:52Ka'imi Fairbairn 38 Yd Field GoalDEN 7 – 9 HOU · HOU 50% → 60% +10HOU 50% → 60%+10 pts
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 40 Yd Field GoalDEN 7 – 12 HOU · HOU 60% → 70% +10HOU 60% → 70%+10 pts
- Q412:28RJ Harvey 27 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Bo Nix Pass to Troy Franklin for Two-Point Conversion)DEN 15 – 15 HOU · DEN 12% → 48% +36DEN 12% → 48%+36 pts
- Q40:00Wil Lutz 34 Yd Field GoalDEN 18 – 15 HOU · DEN 48% → 100% +52DEN 48% → 100%+52 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML DEN +115 / HOU -135
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- HOU 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 39.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -118
- DEN +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 19.5 – 22.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1636 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +3 | DEN: Bo Nix · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +74 Elo | DEN 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 58.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DEN | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.9 | Points scored | 21.919th of 32 |
| 5th of 3218.9 | Points allowed | 14.71st of 32 |
| 9th of 32+7.0 | Margin | +7.18th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.57 | Yards per play | 5.2720th of 32 |
| 1st of 324.56 | Yards allowed per play | 4.775th of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
| 28th of 321464 | Opponent Elo | 15208th of 32 |
| 5th of 321636 | Elo rating | 152714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.