Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SEA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing23/49, 229 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- C.J. StroudRushing2 CAR, 25 YDS
- Dalton SchultzReceiving9 REC, 98 YDS
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing17/31, 213 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing17 CAR, 66 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving8 REC, 123 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:04Woody Marks 4 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)19–27
- Q30:54Zach Charbonnet 2 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)12–27
- Q35:15Jason Myers 47 Yd Field Goal12–20
- Q37:24Will Anderson Jr. Fumble Recovery in End Zone (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)12–17
- Q310:34Jason Myers 26 Yd Field Goal6–17
- Q20:00Ka'imi Fairbairn 46 Yd Field Goal6–14
- Q22:18Ka'imi Fairbairn 36 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q10:00Jaxon Smith-Njigba 11 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)0–14
- Q17:28Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:28Zach Charbonnet 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)HOU 0 – 7 SEA · SEA 59% → 76% +17SEA 59% → 76%+17 pts
- Q10:00Jaxon Smith-Njigba 11 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)HOU 0 – 14 SEA · SEA 76% → 89% +13SEA 76% → 89%+13 pts
- Q37:24Will Anderson Jr. Fumble Recovery in End Zone (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)HOU 12 – 17 SEA · HOU 10% → 25% +15HOU 10% → 25%+15 pts
- Q35:15Jason Myers 47 Yd Field GoalHOU 12 – 20 SEA · SEA 75% → 84% +9SEA 75% → 84%+9 pts
- Q30:54Zach Charbonnet 2 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)HOU 12 – 27 SEA · SEA 86% → 97% +11SEA 86% → 97%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -3.5
- ML HOU +135 / SEA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -5
- SEA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 66.8%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -147
- HOU +147 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 19.0 – 22.5 SEA
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1581 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +4 | +30 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +122 Elo | SEA 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 65.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.6 | Points scored | 27.75th of 32 |
| 1st of 3212.2 | Points allowed | 19.56th of 32 |
| 2nd of 32+9.4 | Margin | +8.26th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.37 | Yards per play | 6.292nd of 32 |
| 5th of 324.73 | Yards allowed per play | 4.836th of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321487 | Opponent Elo | 147724th of 32 |
| 14th of 321522 | Elo rating | 15818th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–3 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–3 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.