San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Mac JonesPassing19/32, 193 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing8 CAR, 25 YDS
- Jauan JenningsReceiving4 REC, 45 YDS
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing30/39, 318 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Woody MarksRushing11 CAR, 62 YDS
- Xavier HutchinsonReceiving5 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q49:41Ka'imi Fairbairn 30 Yd Field Goal15–26
- Q30:28Jake Tonges 2 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Mac Jones Pass to Demarcus Robinson for Two-Point Conversion)15–23
- Q37:29Xavier Hutchinson 30 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)7–23
- Q20:25George Kittle 17 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)7–16
- Q20:58Ka'imi Fairbairn 37 Yd Field Goal0–16
- Q27:32Jayden Higgins 12 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)0–13
- Q214:57Ka'imi Fairbairn 34 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q15:21Ka'imi Fairbairn 33 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:21Ka'imi Fairbairn 33 Yd Field GoalSF 0 – 3 HOU · HOU 59% → 67% +8HOU 59% → 67%+8 pts
- Q27:32Jayden Higgins 12 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)SF 0 – 13 HOU · HOU 75% → 89% +14HOU 75% → 89%+14 pts
- Q20:25George Kittle 17 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 7 – 16 HOU · SF 6% → 16% +11SF 6% → 16%+11 pts
- Q37:29Xavier Hutchinson 30 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)SF 7 – 23 HOU · HOU 86% → 96% +10HOU 86% → 96%+10 pts
- Q30:28Jake Tonges 2 Yd pass from Mac Jones (Mac Jones Pass to Demarcus Robinson for Two-Point Conversion)SF 15 – 23 HOU · SF 2% → 13% +11SF 2% → 13%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML SF +140 / HOU -165
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3.5
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -151
- SF +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 19.0 – 22.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −95 | +3 | SF: Mac Jones, usually Brock Purdy · HOU: C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +88 Elo | HOU 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3220.7 | Points scored | 21.221st of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.7 | Points allowed | 14.71st of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.0 | Margin | +6.57th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.33 | Yards per play | 5.0423rd of 32 |
| 15th of 325.32 | Yards allowed per play | 4.736th of 32 |
| 3rd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 1–120th of 32 |
| 19th of 321498 | Opponent Elo | 150514th of 32 |
| 11th of 321551 | Elo rating | 150418th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.