Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing21/38, 241 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing14 CAR, 40 YDS
- Darnell MooneyReceiving3 REC, 68 YDS
49ers- Mac JonesPassing17/26, 152 YDS, 1 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing24 CAR, 129 YDS, 2 TD
- Christian McCaffreyReceiving7 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:26Christian McCaffrey 4 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–20
- Q36:28Bijan Robinson 10 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)10–13
- Q310:09Eddy Pineiro 43 Yd Field Goal3–13
- Q20:38Eddy Pineiro 55 Yd Field Goal3–10
- Q21:48Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)3–7
- Q212:54Parker Romo 38 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:54Parker Romo 38 Yd Field GoalATL 3 – 0 SF · ATL 53% → 62% +9ATL 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q21:48Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)ATL 3 – 7 SF · SF 37% → 61% +24SF 37% → 61%+24 pts
- Q20:38Eddy Pineiro 55 Yd Field GoalATL 3 – 10 SF · SF 61% → 71% +10SF 61% → 71%+10 pts
- Q36:28Bijan Robinson 10 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)ATL 10 – 13 SF · ATL 16% → 40% +24ATL 16% → 40%+24 pts
- Q42:26Christian McCaffrey 4 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)ATL 10 – 20 SF · SF 82% → >99% +18SF 82% → >99%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML ATL -125 / SF +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -1.5
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -115
- SF +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 24.0 – 22.5 SF
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −15 | −98 | ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins · SF: Mac Jones, usually Brock Purdy (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +36 Elo | ATL 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3220.0 | Points scored | 20.823rd of 32 |
| 7th of 3220.0 | Points allowed | 21.311th of 32 |
| 17th of 320.0 | Margin | −0.519th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.74 | Yards per play | 5.4018th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.84 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3916th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 1–119th of 32 |
| 6th of 321537 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 32 |
| 17th of 321506 | Elo rating | 151714th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.