San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
49ers- Mac JonesPassing27/39, 347 YDS, 2 INT
- Christian McCaffreyRushing17 CAR, 54 YDS, 1 TD
- Kendrick BourneReceiving5 REC, 142 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing17/23, 256 YDS, 2 TD
- Rachaad WhiteRushing17 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Kameron JohnsonReceiving4 REC, 64 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Chase McLaughlin 45 Yd Field Goal19–30
- Q32:40Tez Johnson 45 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)19–27
- Q37:27Eddy Pineiro 29 Yd Field Goal19–20
- Q20:02Eddy Pineiro 42 Yd Field Goal16–20
- Q20:44Kameron Johnson 34 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)13–20
- Q22:05Eddy Pineiro 54 Yd Field Goal13–14
- Q25:10Sean Tucker 9 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–14
- Q210:18Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)10–7
- Q17:54Eddy Pineiro 52 Yd Field Goal3–7
- Q19:54Rachaad White 2 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:54Rachaad White 2 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)SF 0 – 7 TB · TB 63% → 79% +16TB 63% → 79%+16 pts
- Q210:18Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick)SF 10 – 7 TB · SF 28% → 48% +20SF 28% → 48%+20 pts
- Q25:10Sean Tucker 9 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)SF 10 – 14 TB · TB 51% → 73% +22TB 51% → 73%+22 pts
- Q20:44Kameron Johnson 34 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)SF 13 – 20 TB · TB 63% → 81% +17TB 63% → 81%+17 pts
- Q32:40Tez Johnson 45 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)SF 19 – 27 TB · TB 62% → 87% +25TB 62% → 87%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- TB -3.5
- ML SF +160 / TB -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -7
- TB 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.2 pts
- TB: Elo 73.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -176
- SF +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 21.5 – 25.0 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 46.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −103 | — | SF: Mac Jones, usually Brock Purdy · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +174 Elo | TB 73.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 71.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 63.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SF | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 3221.2 | Points scored | 27.06th of 32 |
| 7th of 3219.6 | Points allowed | 26.424th of 32 |
| 15th of 32+1.6 | Margin | +0.616th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.40 | Yards per play | 5.5612th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.12 | Yards allowed per play | 5.3215th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 32 |
| 16th of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 150813th of 32 |
| 14th of 321532 | Elo rating | 156811th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 2–0 TB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.