Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing12/28, 177 YDS, 1 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing17 CAR, 84 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving6 REC, 104 YDS, 1 TD
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing19/26, 255 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jonathan TaylorRushing32 CAR, 244 YDS, 3 TD
- Tyler WarrenReceiving8 REC, 99 YDS
Scoring summary
- OT3:31Jonathan Taylor 8 Yd Rush25–31
- Q40:25Michael Badgley 44 Yd Field Goal25–25
- Q41:44Tyler Allgeier 1 Yd Rush (Michael Penix Jr. Pass to Drake London for Two-Point Conversion)25–22
- Q46:02Jonathan Taylor 83 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)17–22
- Q49:00Michael Badgley 34 Yd Field Goal17–16
- Q312:26Zane Gonzalez 43 Yd Field Goal17–13
- Q23:25Drake London 16 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Zane Gonzalez Kick)14–13
- Q15:19Alec Pierce 37 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)7–13
- Q16:07Tyler Allgeier 1 Yd Rush (Zane Gonzalez Kick)7–6
- Q18:36Jonathan Taylor 1 Yd Rush (Michael Badgley PAT Failed)0–6
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:25Drake London 16 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Zane Gonzalez Kick)ATL 14 – 13 IND · ATL 18% → 38% +19ATL 18% → 38%+19 pts
- Q46:02Jonathan Taylor 83 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)ATL 17 – 22 IND · IND 49% → 88% +39IND 49% → 88%+39 pts
- Q41:44Tyler Allgeier 1 Yd Rush (Michael Penix Jr. Pass to Drake London for Two-Point Conversion)ATL 25 – 22 IND · ATL 3% → 85% +82ATL 3% → 85%+82 pts
- Q40:25Michael Badgley 44 Yd Field GoalATL 25 – 25 IND · IND 1% → 52% +50IND 1% → 52%+50 pts
- OT3:31Jonathan Taylor 8 Yd RushATL 25 – 31 IND · IND 55% → 95% +40IND 55% → 95%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- IND -5.5
- ML ATL +220 / IND -270
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -6.5
- IND 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- IND: Elo 72.1%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- IND -235
- ATL +235 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 21.5 – 27.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Quarterbacks | −7 | +11 | ATL: Michael Penix Jr. · IND: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +165 Elo | IND 72.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 70.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 70.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.9 | Points scored | 32.21st of 32 |
| 13th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 20.17th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.4 | Margin | +12.11st of 32 |
| 14th of 325.45 | Yards per play | 6.331st of 32 |
| 7th of 324.90 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2212th of 32 |
| 11th of 321518 | Opponent Elo | 144530th of 32 |
| 25th of 321404 | Elo rating | 155113th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–0 IND in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.