Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Falcons- Michael Penix Jr.Passing22/37, 221 YDS, 3 TD
- Bijan RobinsonRushing12 CAR, 46 YDS
- Drake LondonReceiving9 REC, 118 YDS, 3 TD
Patriots- Drake MayePassing19/29, 259 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing14 CAR, 55 YDS
- DeMario DouglasReceiving4 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q44:40Drake London 8 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo PAT Failed)23–24
- Q414:08Parker Romo 38 Yd Field Goal17–24
- Q36:26Andy Borregales 32 Yd Field Goal14–24
- Q20:12Drake London 2 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)14–21
- Q25:11Stefon Diggs 11 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–21
- Q28:52Terrell Jennings 3 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)7–14
- Q10:24Drake London 1 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)7–7
- Q17:44DeMario Douglas 17 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:44DeMario Douglas 17 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)ATL 0 – 7 NE · NE 67% → 82% +15NE 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q10:24Drake London 1 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)ATL 7 – 7 NE · ATL 18% → 34% +16ATL 18% → 34%+16 pts
- Q28:52Terrell Jennings 3 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)ATL 7 – 14 NE · NE 65% → 82% +17NE 65% → 82%+17 pts
- Q20:12Drake London 2 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo Kick)ATL 14 – 21 NE · ATL 6% → 17% +11ATL 6% → 17%+11 pts
- Q44:40Drake London 8 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Parker Romo PAT Failed)ATL 23 – 24 NE · ATL 4% → 36% +32ATL 4% → 36%+32 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- NE -5.5
- ML ATL +200 / NE -240
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -7
- NE 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- NE: Elo 72.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- NE -215
- ATL +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 20.0 – 25.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1408 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −13 | +27 | ATL: Michael Penix Jr., usually Kirk Cousins · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +171 Elo | NE 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 69.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 68.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ATL | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 3217.1 | Points scored | 26.68th of 32 |
| 13th of 3222.0 | Points allowed | 18.34th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−4.9 | Margin | +8.45th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.46 | Yards per play | 5.828th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.91 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4218th of 32 |
| 17th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–219th of 32 |
| 15th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 140332nd of 32 |
| 24th of 321408 | Elo rating | 150316th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 4–1 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 2–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.