Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Dillon GabrielPassing21/35, 156 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- Malachi CorleyRushing1 CAR, 31 YDS
- Harold Fannin Jr.Receiving6 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD
Patriots- Drake MayePassing18/24, 282 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing10 CAR, 75 YDS
- Mack HollinsReceiving7 REC, 89 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:06Penalty Dillon Gabriel Intentional Grounding for Safety13–32
- Q49:24David Njoku 11 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)13–30
- Q30:53Kayshon Boutte 39 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–30
- Q36:43Stefon Diggs 1 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–23
- Q39:10Hunter Henry 7 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–16
- Q20:00Andy Borregales 42 Yd Field Goal7–9
- Q27:41Andy Borregales 32 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q15:10Harold Fannin Jr. 18 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–3
- Q18:45Andy Borregales 36 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:10Harold Fannin Jr. 18 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 7 – 3 NE · CLE 22% → 39% +17CLE 22% → 39%+17 pts
- Q27:41Andy Borregales 32 Yd Field GoalCLE 7 – 6 NE · NE 57% → 66% +9NE 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q20:00Andy Borregales 42 Yd Field GoalCLE 7 – 9 NE · NE 64% → 73% +9NE 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q39:10Hunter Henry 7 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)CLE 7 – 16 NE · NE 72% → 90% +18NE 72% → 90%+18 pts
- Q36:43Stefon Diggs 1 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)CLE 7 – 23 NE · NE 91% → 98% +7NE 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Patriots 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- NE -6.5
- ML CLE +260 / NE -320
- Pre-line forecast
- NE 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NE -6.5
- NE 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- NE: Elo 72.2%, market 73.3%
- Fair odds
- NE -273
- CLE +273 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 17.0 – 23.5 NE
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1401 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −22 | +26 | CLE: Dillon Gabriel, usually Deshaun Watson · NE: Drake Maye (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NE +166 Elo | NE 72.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NE 71.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NE 72.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NE 73.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | NE |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 3216.1 | Points scored | 25.98th of 32 |
| 13th of 3221.7 | Points allowed | 19.05th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−5.6 | Margin | +6.96th of 32 |
| 31st of 324.12 | Yards per play | 5.729th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.54 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6023rd of 32 |
| 27th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 1–224th of 32 |
| 9th of 321527 | Opponent Elo | 140632nd of 32 |
| 27th of 321401 | Elo rating | 148420th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–4 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.