Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing12/23, 100 YDS, 3 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing13 CAR, 82 YDS
- Dee EskridgeReceiving2 REC, 45 YDS
Browns- Dillon GabrielPassing13/18, 116 YDS
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing25 CAR, 84 YDS, 3 TD
- Harold Fannin Jr.Receiving4 REC, 36 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:56Quinshon Judkins 2 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)6–31
- Q314:48Tyson Campbell 34 Yd Interception Return (Andre Szmyt Kick)6–24
- Q20:00Riley Patterson 26 Yd Field Goal6–17
- Q26:03Quinshon Judkins 3 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)3–17
- Q211:19Quinshon Judkins 46 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)3–10
- Q214:14Riley Patterson 33 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q12:17Andre Szmyt 30 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:17Andre Szmyt 30 Yd Field GoalMIA 0 – 3 CLE · CLE 55% → 63% +8CLE 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q214:14Riley Patterson 33 Yd Field GoalMIA 3 – 3 CLE · MIA 37% → 46% +9MIA 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q211:19Quinshon Judkins 46 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)MIA 3 – 10 CLE · CLE 54% → 74% +20CLE 54% → 74%+20 pts
- Q26:03Quinshon Judkins 3 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)MIA 3 – 17 CLE · CLE 75% → 89% +14CLE 75% → 89%+14 pts
- Q314:48Tyson Campbell 34 Yd Interception Return (Andre Szmyt Kick)MIA 6 – 24 CLE · CLE 86% → 96% +10CLE 86% → 96%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Browns 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -2.5
- ML MIA +120 / CLE -140
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- CLE 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 43.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -123
- MIA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 16.5 – 19.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 35.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1354 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +18 | −23 | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · CLE: Dillon Gabriel, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +48 Elo | MIA 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 55.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 3222.3 | Points scored | 13.732nd of 32 |
| 29th of 3229.0 | Points allowed | 24.321st of 32 |
| 25th of 32−6.7 | Margin | −10.730th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.39 | Yards per play | 4.1531st of 32 |
| 31st of 326.35 | Yards allowed per play | 4.663rd of 32 |
| 26th of 320–3 | Road vs home | 1–117th of 32 |
| 20th of 321481 | Opponent Elo | 15602nd of 32 |
| 27th of 321397 | Elo rating | 135429th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 1–0 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.