Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing20/26, 205 YDS, 4 TD
- De'Von AchaneRushing18 CAR, 67 YDS
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving5 REC, 99 YDS, 1 TD
Falcons- Kirk CousinsPassing21/31, 173 YDS
- Bijan RobinsonRushing9 CAR, 25 YDS
- Kyle Pitts Sr.Receiving9 REC, 59 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:01Tyler Allgeier 6 Yd Rush (Parker Romo Kick)34–10
- Q48:36Riley Patterson 36 Yd Field Goal34–3
- Q413:28Ollie Gordon II 20 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)31–3
- Q34:18Jaylen Waddle 43 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)24–3
- Q20:11Malik Washington 9 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)17–3
- Q26:14Riley Patterson 34 Yd Field Goal10–3
- Q212:59Parker Romo 45 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q12:33De'Von Achane 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:33De'Von Achane 3 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 7 – 0 ATL · MIA 28% → 47% +19MIA 28% → 47%+19 pts
- Q212:59Parker Romo 45 Yd Field GoalMIA 7 – 3 ATL · ATL 51% → 60% +9ATL 51% → 60%+9 pts
- Q26:14Riley Patterson 34 Yd Field GoalMIA 10 – 3 ATL · MIA 43% → 53% +10MIA 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q20:11Malik Washington 9 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 17 – 3 ATL · MIA 56% → 78% +22MIA 56% → 78%+22 pts
- Q34:18Jaylen Waddle 43 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)MIA 24 – 3 ATL · MIA 88% → 98% +9MIA 88% → 98%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Falcons 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -6.5
- ML MIA +270 / ATL -340
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -7
- ATL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 73.7%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -285
- MIA +285 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 18.5 – 25.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1349 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +16 | +35 | MIA: Tua Tagovailoa · ATL: Kirk Cousins, usually Michael Penix Jr. (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +179 Elo | ATL 73.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 76.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 74.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 74.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 3220.0 | Points scored | 18.328th of 32 |
| 29th of 3229.3 | Points allowed | 20.08th of 32 |
| 29th of 32−9.3 | Margin | −1.723rd of 32 |
| 20th of 325.15 | Yards per play | 5.6113th of 32 |
| 29th of 326.04 | Yards allowed per play | 4.857th of 32 |
| 27th of 320–4 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
| 26th of 321477 | Opponent Elo | 15298th of 32 |
| 29th of 321349 | Elo rating | 147222nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–1 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1 | 1–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.