Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing23/34, 261 YDS, 4 TD
- Kareem HuntRushing14 CAR, 58 YDS
- Rashee RiceReceiving8 REC, 92 YDS, 2 TD
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing27/39, 320 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing17 CAR, 59 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving7 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:27Hollywood Brown 10 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)28–31
- Q45:16Brandon Aubrey 26 Yd Field Goal21–31
- Q411:15Javonte Williams 3 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Pass to George Pickens for Two-Point Conversion)21–28
- Q414:51Rashee Rice 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)21–20
- Q34:09Brandon Aubrey 36 Yd Field Goal14–20
- Q23:10Malik Davis 43 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)14–17
- Q210:22Brandon Aubrey 49 Yd Field Goal14–10
- Q10:01Travis Kelce 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)14–7
- Q16:50CeeDee Lamb 15 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)7–7
- Q113:04Rashee Rice 27 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q10:01Travis Kelce 2 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 14 – 7 DAL · KC 61% → 79% +17KC 61% → 79%+17 pts
- Q23:10Malik Davis 43 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)KC 14 – 17 DAL · DAL 28% → 50% +22DAL 28% → 50%+22 pts
- Q414:51Rashee Rice 3 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 21 – 20 DAL · KC 28% → 61% +34KC 28% → 61%+34 pts
- Q411:15Javonte Williams 3 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Dak Prescott Pass to George Pickens for Two-Point Conversion)KC 21 – 28 DAL · DAL 39% → 81% +42DAL 39% → 81%+42 pts
- Q43:27Hollywood Brown 10 Yd pass from Patrick Mahomes (Harrison Butker Kick)KC 28 – 31 DAL · KC <1% → 24% +23KC <1% → 24%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- KC -3.5
- ML KC -184 / DAL +160
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -4
- KC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- KC: Elo 63.6%, market 62.7%
- Fair odds
- KC -169
- DAL +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 28.0 – 24.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 52.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1645 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +30 | KC: Patrick Mahomes · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +97 Elo | KC 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 64.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 62.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| KC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 3225.2 | Points scored | 29.14th of 32 |
| 4th of 3218.3 | Points allowed | 28.531st of 32 |
| 5th of 32+6.9 | Margin | +0.517th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.66 | Yards per play | 5.975th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.39 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9128th of 32 |
| 9th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 5–4–118th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–1–19th of 32 |
| 8th of 321524 | Opponent Elo | 148623rd of 32 |
| 5th of 321645 | Elo rating | 148720th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 6–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 7–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.