Dallas Cowboys at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing25/33, 268 YDS, 4 TD
- Javonte WilliamsRushing22 CAR, 93 YDS
- George PickensReceiving9 REC, 144 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing27/42, 238 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Geno SmithRushing4 CAR, 14 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving7 REC, 72 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q411:39Donovan Ezeiruaku Safety33–16
- Q413:22Tre Tucker 6 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)31–16
- Q36:19Ryan Flournoy 2 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)31–9
- Q20:00Daniel Carlson 38 Yd Field Goal24–9
- Q21:10George Pickens 37 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)24–6
- Q25:16Jake Ferguson 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)17–6
- Q214:51CeeDee Lamb 18 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–6
- Q12:02Daniel Carlson 45 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q15:36Brandon Aubrey 50 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q17:55Daniel Carlson 35 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:36Brandon Aubrey 50 Yd Field GoalDAL 3 – 3 LV · DAL 55% → 63% +8DAL 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q12:02Daniel Carlson 45 Yd Field GoalDAL 3 – 6 LV · LV 38% → 46% +8LV 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q214:51CeeDee Lamb 18 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 10 – 6 LV · DAL 53% → 72% +19DAL 53% → 72%+19 pts
- Q25:16Jake Ferguson 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 17 – 6 LV · DAL 73% → 88% +15DAL 73% → 88%+15 pts
- Q21:10George Pickens 37 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)DAL 24 – 6 LV · DAL 89% → 97% +8DAL 89% → 97%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML DAL -194 / LV +170
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3
- DAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- DAL: Elo 61.1%, market 64.0%
- Fair odds
- DAL -176
- LV +176 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 26.0 – 22.5 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1316 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +30 | +32 | DAL: Dak Prescott · LV: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +78 Elo | DAL 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 60.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DAL | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.2 | Points scored | 15.431st of 32 |
| 31st of 3230.8 | Points allowed | 24.420th of 32 |
| 20th of 32−1.6 | Margin | −9.029th of 32 |
| 5th of 325.87 | Yards per play | 4.8029th of 32 |
| 29th of 326.10 | Yards allowed per play | 5.088th of 32 |
| 24th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321492 | Opponent Elo | 150915th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321432 | Elo rating | 131631st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 3–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.