Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jacoby BrissettPassing21/31, 261 YDS, 2 TD
- Emari DemercadoRushing14 CAR, 79 YDS
- Marvin Harrison Jr.Receiving7 REC, 96 YDS, 1 TD
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing24/39, 250 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing15 CAR, 83 YDS
- CeeDee LambReceiving7 REC, 85 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q410:51Ryan Flournoy 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)27–17
- Q32:31Chad Ryland 34 Yd Field Goal27–10
- Q37:15Brandon Aubrey 26 Yd Field Goal24–10
- Q312:48Trey McBride 12 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)24–7
- Q20:49Jacoby Brissett 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)17–7
- Q23:58Marshawn Kneeland Blocked Punt Recovery in End Zone (Brandon Aubrey Kick)10–7
- Q212:17Marvin Harrison Jr. 4 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)10–0
- Q13:38Chad Ryland 48 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q212:17Marvin Harrison Jr. 4 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 10 – 0 DAL · ARI 48% → 68% +20ARI 48% → 68%+20 pts
- Q23:58Marshawn Kneeland Blocked Punt Recovery in End Zone (Brandon Aubrey Kick)ARI 10 – 7 DAL · DAL 28% → 50% +22DAL 28% → 50%+22 pts
- Q20:49Jacoby Brissett 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 17 – 7 DAL · ARI 51% → 74% +23ARI 51% → 74%+23 pts
- Q312:48Trey McBride 12 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick)ARI 24 – 7 DAL · ARI 76% → 91% +15ARI 76% → 91%+15 pts
- Q410:51Ryan Flournoy 5 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)ARI 27 – 17 DAL · DAL <1% → 9% +8DAL <1% → 9%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cowboys 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -3.5
- ML ARI +155 / DAL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -7.5
- DAL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.9 pts
- DAL: Elo 74.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -173
- ARI +173 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 25.0 – 28.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 53.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1421 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −56 | +32 | ARI: Jacoby Brissett, usually Kyler Murray · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +184 Elo | DAL 74.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 72.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 63.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| ARI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 3221.9 | Points scored | 30.82nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3222.0 | Points allowed | 31.331st of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −0.517th of 32 |
| 27th of 324.93 | Yards per play | 5.974th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.25 | Yards allowed per play | 6.2130th of 32 |
| 18th of 321–2 | Road vs home | 2–0–13rd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321483 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 32 |
| 24th of 321421 | Elo rating | 148118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–0 DAL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.