Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing27/39, 289 YDS, 1 TD
- Jalen HurtsRushing7 CAR, 33 YDS, 2 TD
- A.J. BrownReceiving8 REC, 110 YDS, 1 TD
Cowboys- Dak PrescottPassing23/36, 354 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Javonte WilliamsRushing20 CAR, 87 YDS
- George PickensReceiving9 REC, 146 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Brandon Aubrey 42 Yd Field Goal21–24
- Q411:40Dak Prescott 8 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)21–21
- Q32:02Brevyn Spann-Ford 4 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)21–14
- Q20:21George Pickens 1 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)21–7
- Q211:32Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)21–0
- Q10:57Jalen Hurts 7 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)14–0
- Q18:41A.J. Brown 16 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:41A.J. Brown 16 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 0 DAL · PHI 59% → 75% +17PHI 59% → 75%+17 pts
- Q10:57Jalen Hurts 7 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 14 – 0 DAL · PHI 76% → 89% +13PHI 76% → 89%+13 pts
- Q32:02Brevyn Spann-Ford 4 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Brandon Aubrey Kick)PHI 21 – 14 DAL · DAL 4% → 17% +13DAL 4% → 17%+13 pts
- Q411:40Dak Prescott 8 Yd Rush (Brandon Aubrey Kick)PHI 21 – 21 DAL · DAL 14% → 46% +32DAL 14% → 46%+32 pts
- Q40:00Brandon Aubrey 42 Yd Field GoalPHI 21 – 24 DAL · DAL 46% → 100% +54DAL 46% → 100%+54 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML PHI -150 / DAL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -7
- PHI 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +15.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 73.6%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -145
- DAL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 25.5 – 23.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1697 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | +30 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · DAL: Dak Prescott (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +178 Elo | PHI 73.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 71.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3223.4 | Points scored | 29.63rd of 32 |
| 8th of 3220.1 | Points allowed | 29.331st of 32 |
| 11th of 32+3.3 | Margin | +0.317th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.11 | Yards per play | 5.875th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.21 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9228th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 2–1–113th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321540 | Opponent Elo | 146826th of 32 |
| 1st of 321697 | Elo rating | 145921st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–3 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–1 DAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.