New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jaxson DartPassing14/24, 193 YDS, 1 TD
- Tyrone Tracy Jr.Rushing10 CAR, 39 YDS
- Wan'Dale RobinsonReceiving3 REC, 48 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing15/20, 179 YDS, 4 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing14 CAR, 150 YDS, 1 TD
- DeVonta SmithReceiving6 REC, 84 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:44Jaxson Dart 2 Yd Rush (Graham Gano Kick)20–38
- Q45:59Jahan Dotson 40 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)13–38
- Q411:17Dallas Goedert 17 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)13–31
- Q30:19Graham Gano 34 Yd Field Goal13–24
- Q37:03Jake Elliott 40 Yd Field Goal10–24
- Q20:21Dallas Goedert 6 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)10–21
- Q22:53Graham Gano 47 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q211:38Saquon Barkley 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)7–14
- Q12:56Cam Skattebo 18 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Graham Gano Kick)7–7
- Q114:43Saquon Barkley 65 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q114:43Saquon Barkley 65 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)NYG 0 – 7 PHI · PHI 78% → 89% +11PHI 78% → 89%+11 pts
- Q12:56Cam Skattebo 18 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Graham Gano Kick)NYG 7 – 7 PHI · NYG 12% → 24% +13NYG 12% → 24%+13 pts
- Q211:38Saquon Barkley 9 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)NYG 7 – 14 PHI · PHI 74% → 88% +14PHI 74% → 88%+14 pts
- Q22:53Graham Gano 47 Yd Field GoalNYG 10 – 14 PHI · NYG 12% → 18% +6NYG 12% → 18%+6 pts
- Q20:21Dallas Goedert 6 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)NYG 10 – 21 PHI · PHI 82% → 94% +12PHI 82% → 94%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -7.5
- ML NYG +320 / PHI -425
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -12.5
- PHI 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 86.1%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -356
- NYG +356 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYG 18.0 – 25.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYG | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1651 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −27 | +8 | NYG: Jaxson Dart, usually Daniel Jones · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +317 Elo | PHI 86.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 80.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 84.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 78.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NYG | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 24.314th of 32 |
| 23rd of 3225.3 | Points allowed | 23.620th of 32 |
| 24th of 32−3.4 | Margin | +0.716th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.09 | Yards per play | 5.0124th of 32 |
| 26th of 325.66 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4220th of 32 |
| 27th of 320–4 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321548 | Opponent Elo | 15542nd of 32 |
| 26th of 321404 | Elo rating | 16513rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYG |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 4–3 |
| Favorite | — | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 4–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYG 2–3 PHI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.