Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing19/23, 326 YDS, 3 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing18 CAR, 44 YDS
- DeVonta SmithReceiving9 REC, 183 YDS, 1 TD
Vikings- Carson WentzPassing26/42, 313 YDS, 2 INT
- Jordan MasonRushing15 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- Jordan AddisonReceiving9 REC, 128 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:57Will Reichard 29 Yd Field Goal28–22
- Q46:35A.J. Brown 26 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)28–19
- Q410:06Will Reichard 35 Yd Field Goal21–19
- Q33:38Jordan Mason 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)21–16
- Q38:07DeVonta Smith 79 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)21–9
- Q39:02Will Reichard 28 Yd Field Goal14–9
- Q26:34Will Reichard 34 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q213:26Jalyx Hunt 42 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)14–3
- Q12:04Will Reichard 59 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q16:59A.J. Brown 37 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:59A.J. Brown 37 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 7 – 0 MIN · PHI 56% → 74% +17PHI 56% → 74%+17 pts
- Q213:26Jalyx Hunt 42 Yd Interception Return (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 14 – 3 MIN · PHI 67% → 83% +16PHI 67% → 83%+16 pts
- Q38:07DeVonta Smith 79 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 21 – 9 MIN · PHI 73% → 91% +18PHI 73% → 91%+18 pts
- Q33:38Jordan Mason 1 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)PHI 21 – 16 MIN · MIN 7% → 25% +18MIN 7% → 25%+18 pts
- Q46:35A.J. Brown 26 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 28 – 19 MIN · PHI 67% → 96% +29PHI 67% → 96%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML PHI -140 / MIN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -4
- PHI 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 63.8%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -131
- MIN +131 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 23.5 – 21.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1634 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +7 | −69 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · MIN: Carson Wentz, usually Sam Darnold (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +98 Elo | PHI 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 62.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3223.7 | Points scored | 24.614th of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.8 | Points allowed | 19.45th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.2 | Margin | +5.29th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.68 | Yards per play | 5.3320th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.36 | Yards allowed per play | 4.868th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–117th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321553 | Opponent Elo | 146527th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321634 | Elo rating | 157610th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | — | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–0 MIN in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.