Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing15/26, 183 YDS, 1 TD
- Saquon BarkleyRushing22 CAR, 60 YDS
- DeVonta SmithReceiving4 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
Packers- Jordan LovePassing20/36, 176 YDS
- Josh JacobsRushing21 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
- Christian WatsonReceiving2 REC, 45 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:49Josh Jacobs 6 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)10–7
- Q410:35DeVonta Smith 36 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)10–0
- Q38:58Jake Elliott 39 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:58Jake Elliott 39 Yd Field GoalPHI 3 – 0 GB · PHI 50% → 61% +12PHI 50% → 61%+12 pts
- Q410:35DeVonta Smith 36 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick)PHI 10 – 0 GB · PHI 67% → 93% +26PHI 67% → 93%+26 pts
- Q45:49Josh Jacobs 6 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick)PHI 10 – 7 GB · GB 2% → 27% +25GB 2% → 27%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 54.7% of 95 graded games.
- Market
- GB -1.5
- ML PHI -104 / GB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- GB 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- GB: Elo 47.8%, market 50.7%
- Fair odds
- GB -102
- PHI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 21.5 – 23.0 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1660 | 1611 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +8 | +4 | PHI: Jalen Hurts · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +15 Elo | PHI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 62.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 51.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 50.5% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PHI | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3226.0 | Points scored | 25.811th of 32 |
| 15th of 3223.1 | Points allowed | 20.89th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+2.9 | Margin | +5.010th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.32 | Yards per play | 5.906th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.37 | Yards allowed per play | 4.612nd of 32 |
| 4th of 323–1 | Road vs home | 3–15th of 32 |
| 9th of 321522 | Opponent Elo | 145829th of 32 |
| 1st of 321660 | Elo rating | 16118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 5–3 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | — | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–0 GB in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.