Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Bryce YoungPassing11/20, 102 YDS, 1 INT
- Rico DowdleRushing25 CAR, 130 YDS, 2 TD
- Tetairoa McMillanReceiving4 REC, 46 YDS
Packers- Jordan LovePassing26/37, 273 YDS, 1 INT
- Josh JacobsRushing17 CAR, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- Romeo DoubsReceiving7 REC, 91 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Ryan Fitzgerald 49 Yd Field Goal16–13
- Q42:32Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)13–13
- Q32:12Rico Dowdle 1 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT Failed)13–6
- Q20:00Brandon McManus 27 Yd Field Goal7–6
- Q22:22Rico Dowdle 5 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)7–3
- Q27:53Brandon McManus 49 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:22Rico Dowdle 5 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)CAR 7 – 3 GB · CAR 15% → 32% +18CAR 15% → 32%+18 pts
- Q20:00Brandon McManus 27 Yd Field GoalCAR 7 – 6 GB · GB 66% → 75% +9GB 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q32:12Rico Dowdle 1 Yd Rush (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT Failed)CAR 13 – 6 GB · CAR 32% → 59% +27CAR 32% → 59%+27 pts
- Q42:32Josh Jacobs 1 Yd Run (Brandon McManus Kick)CAR 13 – 13 GB · GB 3% → 59% +56GB 3% → 59%+56 pts
- Q40:00Ryan Fitzgerald 49 Yd Field GoalCAR 16 – 13 GB · CAR 33% → 100% +67CAR 33% → 100%+67 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Packers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 93.3% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- GB -13.5
- ML CAR +600 / GB -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- GB 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GB -11
- GB 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- GB: Elo 83.2%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- GB -625
- CAR +625 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 15.0 – 28.5 GB
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | GB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1402 | 1644 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +5 | +5 | CAR: Bryce Young · GB: Jordan Love (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GB +278 Elo | GB 83.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GB 82.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GB 82.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GB 86.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CAR | Stat | GB |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 3219.3 | Points scored | 27.65th of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.0 | Points allowed | 21.410th of 32 |
| 23rd of 32−4.8 | Margin | +6.110th of 32 |
| 29th of 324.91 | Yards per play | 5.905th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.50 | Yards allowed per play | 4.572nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 321–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 29th of 321453 | Opponent Elo | 148723rd of 32 |
| 25th of 321402 | Elo rating | 16444th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CAR |  GB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | — | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CAR 0–1 GB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.