Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing14/37, 255 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing12 CAR, 39 YDS
- Jahmyr GibbsReceiving5 REC, 107 YDS
Eagles- Jalen HurtsPassing14/28, 135 YDS
- Saquon BarkleyRushing26 CAR, 83 YDS
- A.J. BrownReceiving7 REC, 49 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q41:58Jake Bates 54 Yd Field Goal9–16
- Q410:15Jake Elliott 49 Yd Field Goal6–16
- Q20:16Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)6–13
- Q25:05Jameson Williams 40 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates PAT Failed)6–6
- Q26:02Jake Elliott 34 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q19:43Jake Elliott 27 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:43Jake Elliott 27 Yd Field GoalDET 0 – 3 PHI · PHI 57% → 64% +8PHI 57% → 64%+8 pts
- Q26:02Jake Elliott 34 Yd Field GoalDET 0 – 6 PHI · PHI 65% → 73% +9PHI 65% → 73%+9 pts
- Q25:05Jameson Williams 40 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates PAT Failed)DET 6 – 6 PHI · DET 26% → 45% +18DET 26% → 45%+18 pts
- Q20:16Jalen Hurts 1 Yd Rush (Jake Elliott Kick)DET 6 – 13 PHI · PHI 55% → 77% +22PHI 55% → 77%+22 pts
- Q410:15Jake Elliott 49 Yd Field GoalDET 6 – 16 PHI · PHI 87% → 94% +7PHI 87% → 94%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Eagles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -2.5
- ML DET +125 / PHI -143
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -2.5
- PHI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 58.9%, market 57.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -133
- DET +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 21.5 – 24.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1657 | 1676 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +7 | DET: Jared Goff · PHI: Jalen Hurts (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +63 Elo | PHI 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 3231.4 | Points scored | 24.213th of 32 |
| 11th of 3222.2 | Points allowed | 21.39th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+9.2 | Margin | +2.911th of 32 |
| 4th of 326.05 | Yards per play | 5.2719th of 32 |
| 7th of 325.03 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2013th of 32 |
| 10th of 323–2 | Road vs home | 3–17th of 32 |
| 13th of 321512 | Opponent Elo | 15268th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321657 | Elo rating | 16761st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 5–3 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.