Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing28/50, 228 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rachaad WhiteRushing10 CAR, 38 YDS
- Cade OttonReceiving7 REC, 65 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing20/29, 241 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing17 CAR, 136 YDS, 2 TD
- Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q410:18Jake Bates 58 Yd Field Goal9–24
- Q34:39Jahmyr Gibbs 5 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)9–21
- Q38:49Tez Johnson 22 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)9–14
- Q20:00Chase McLaughlin 53 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q25:51Jahmyr Gibbs 78 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)0–14
- Q111:59Amon-Ra St. Brown 27 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:59Amon-Ra St. Brown 27 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)TB 0 – 7 DET · DET 71% → 84% +13DET 71% → 84%+13 pts
- Q25:51Jahmyr Gibbs 78 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)TB 0 – 14 DET · DET 84% → 94% +10DET 84% → 94%+10 pts
- Q20:00Chase McLaughlin 53 Yd Field GoalTB 3 – 14 DET · TB 5% → 9% +3TB 5% → 9%+3 pts
- Q38:49Tez Johnson 22 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)TB 9 – 14 DET · TB 7% → 20% +12TB 7% → 20%+12 pts
- Q34:39Jahmyr Gibbs 5 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)TB 9 – 21 DET · DET 81% → 95% +14DET 81% → 95%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 78.6% of 98 graded games.
- Market
- DET -6.5
- ML TB +240 / DET -290
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4
- DET 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- DET: Elo 64.0%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -246
- TB +246 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 24.0 – 30.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 54.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1583 | 1647 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TB: Baker Mayfield · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +100 Elo | DET 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 71.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 65.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 71.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 3227.5 | Points scored | 31.82nd of 32 |
| 22nd of 3225.2 | Points allowed | 23.720th of 32 |
| 12th of 32+2.3 | Margin | +8.26th of 32 |
| 8th of 325.76 | Yards per play | 5.915th of 32 |
| 16th of 325.34 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2810th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 32 |
| 9th of 321516 | Opponent Elo | 15327th of 32 |
| 8th of 321583 | Elo rating | 16473rd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 1–2 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.