Detroit Lions at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lions- Jared GoffPassing25/33, 320 YDS, 3 TD
- Jahmyr GibbsRushing15 CAR, 142 YDS, 2 TD
- Jameson WilliamsReceiving6 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
Commanders- Marcus MariotaPassing16/22, 213 YDS, 2 TD
- Jacory Croskey-MerrittRushing11 CAR, 30 YDS
- Treylon BurksReceiving3 REC, 58 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:34Jake Bates 48 Yd Field Goal44–22
- Q46:57Ben Sinnott 4 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)41–22
- Q412:50Jahmyr Gibbs 43 Yd Rush (Jake Bates PAT blocked)41–16
- Q32:30Jake Bates 28 Yd Field Goal35–16
- Q37:05Deebo Samuel 4 Yd pass from Marcus Mariota (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)32–16
- Q312:06Jameson Williams 14 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)32–10
- Q20:11Jake Bates 22 Yd Field Goal25–10
- Q23:39Chris Rodriguez Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)22–10
- Q29:41Jahmyr Gibbs 13 Yd Rush (David Montgomery Run for Two-Point Conversion)22–3
- Q11:54Amon-Ra St. Brown 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)14–3
- Q15:43Matt Gay 44 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q18:24Jahmyr Gibbs 14 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:24Jahmyr Gibbs 14 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 7 – 0 WSH · DET 76% → 88% +12DET 76% → 88%+12 pts
- Q15:43Matt Gay 44 Yd Field GoalDET 7 – 3 WSH · WSH 12% → 17% +5WSH 12% → 17%+5 pts
- Q11:54Amon-Ra St. Brown 9 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)DET 14 – 3 WSH · DET 83% → 92% +10DET 83% → 92%+10 pts
- Q29:41Jahmyr Gibbs 13 Yd Rush (David Montgomery Run for Two-Point Conversion)DET 22 – 3 WSH · DET 93% → 98% +5DET 93% → 98%+5 pts
- Q23:39Chris Rodriguez Jr. 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)DET 22 – 10 WSH · WSH 2% → 6% +4WSH 2% → 6%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- DET -7.5
- ML DET -400 / WSH +325
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7.5
- DET 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- DET: Elo 74.6%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -336
- WSH +336 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 28.0 – 20.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −52 | DET: Jared Goff · WSH: Marcus Mariota, usually Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +187 Elo | DET 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 75.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 74.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 77.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| DET | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.9 | Points scored | 22.321st of 32 |
| 13th of 3222.3 | Points allowed | 26.226th of 32 |
| 5th of 32+7.6 | Margin | −3.922nd of 32 |
| 9th of 325.77 | Yards per play | 5.6213th of 32 |
| 7th of 324.96 | Yards allowed per play | 6.1730th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–218th of 32 |
| 4th of 321531 | Opponent Elo | 149121st of 32 |
| 5th of 321638 | Elo rating | 146719th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.