Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Seahawks- Sam DarnoldPassing21/24, 330 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
- Kenneth Walker IIIRushing11 CAR, 42 YDS
- Jaxon Smith-NjigbaReceiving8 REC, 129 YDS
Commanders- Jayden DanielsPassing16/22, 153 YDS, 1 INT
- Chris Rodriguez Jr.Rushing12 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
- Zach ErtzReceiving4 REC, 46 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q47:14Chris Rodriguez Jr. 4 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)38–14
- Q31:53AJ Barner 1 Yd Rush (Jason Myers Kick)38–7
- Q20:00Jason Myers 41 Yd Field Goal31–7
- Q20:53Jayden Daniels 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)28–7
- Q24:34Cody White 60 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)28–0
- Q28:41Elijah Arroyo 26 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)21–0
- Q28:52Tory Horton 25 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)14–0
- Q13:04Tory Horton 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:04Tory Horton 4 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 7 – 0 WSH · SEA 57% → 75% +18SEA 57% → 75%+18 pts
- Q28:52Tory Horton 25 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 14 – 0 WSH · SEA 76% → 89% +14SEA 76% → 89%+14 pts
- Q28:41Elijah Arroyo 26 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 21 – 0 WSH · SEA 89% → 96% +7SEA 89% → 96%+7 pts
- Q24:34Cody White 60 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Jason Myers Kick)SEA 28 – 0 WSH · SEA 97% → >99% +2SEA 97% → >99%+2 pts
- Q20:53Jayden Daniels 1 Yd Rush (Matt Gay Kick)SEA 28 – 7 WSH · WSH <1% → 2% +2WSH <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Seahawks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- SEA -2.5
- ML SEA -147 / WSH +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA -2
- SEA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 56.9%, market 57.8%
- Fair odds
- SEA -136
- WSH +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 25.0 – 22.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1599 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +24 | +37 | SEA: Sam Darnold, usually Geno Smith · WSH: Jayden Daniels (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +48 Elo | SEA 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 3227.6 | Points scored | 23.418th of 32 |
| 6th of 3219.4 | Points allowed | 24.822nd of 32 |
| 5th of 32+8.1 | Margin | −1.420th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.03 | Yards per play | 5.7411th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324.65 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9329th of 32 |
| 1st of 323–0 | Road vs home | 2–112th of 32 |
| 22nd of 321484 | Opponent Elo | 147923rd of 32 |
| 9th of 321599 | Elo rating | 150118th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–0 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.