Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- J.J. McCarthyPassing14/25, 143 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Aaron Jones Sr.Rushing9 CAR, 78 YDS
- Jordan AddisonReceiving2 REC, 48 YDS
Lions- Jared GoffPassing25/37, 284 YDS, 2 TD
- David MontgomeryRushing11 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
- Sam LaPortaReceiving6 REC, 97 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Jameson Williams 37 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)27–24
- Q43:31Will Reichard 20 Yd Field Goal27–17
- Q30:11Jake Bates 41 Yd Field Goal24–17
- Q36:04J.J. McCarthy 9 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)24–14
- Q24:42Will Reichard 50 Yd Field Goal17–14
- Q29:39David Montgomery 2 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)14–14
- Q14:08T.J. Hockenson 7 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)14–7
- Q110:17Justin Jefferson 10 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)7–7
- Q112:37Sam LaPorta 40 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:08T.J. Hockenson 7 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 14 – 7 DET · MIN 21% → 38% +16MIN 21% → 38%+16 pts
- Q29:39David Montgomery 2 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick)MIN 14 – 14 DET · DET 57% → 76% +19DET 57% → 76%+19 pts
- Q36:04J.J. McCarthy 9 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 24 – 14 DET · MIN 42% → 70% +29MIN 42% → 70%+29 pts
- Q30:11Jake Bates 41 Yd Field GoalMIN 24 – 17 DET · DET 21% → 33% +12DET 21% → 33%+12 pts
- Q41:55Jameson Williams 37 Yd pass from Jared Goff (Jake Bates Kick)MIN 27 – 24 DET · DET <1% → 18% +18DET <1% → 18%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lions 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML MIN +400 / DET -600
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -11
- DET 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- DET: Elo 82.8%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -432
- MIN +432 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 19.0 – 28.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 47.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1671 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −89 | — | MIN: J.J. McCarthy, usually Sam Darnold · DET: Jared Goff (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +273 Elo | DET 82.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 74.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 81.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 81.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 3222.1 | Points scored | 30.73rd of 32 |
| 19th of 3223.1 | Points allowed | 21.611th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−1.0 | Margin | +9.13rd of 32 |
| 21st of 325.19 | Yards per play | 5.906th of 32 |
| 15th of 325.35 | Yards allowed per play | 5.058th of 32 |
| 12th of 321–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 32 |
| 25th of 321482 | Opponent Elo | 15423rd of 32 |
| 15th of 321522 | Elo rating | 16712nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 4–0 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–4 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.