Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Vikings- Carson WentzPassing15/27, 144 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Zavier ScottRushing2 CAR, 16 YDS
- Justin JeffersonReceiving7 REC, 74 YDS
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing18/25, 227 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- Kimani VidalRushing23 CAR, 117 YDS, 1 TD
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving6 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:56Cameron Dicker 45 Yd Field Goal10–37
- Q47:01Cameron Dicker 34 Yd Field Goal10–34
- Q412:42Tre' Harris 6 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)10–31
- Q34:36Jordan Addison 4 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)10–24
- Q310:01Cameron Dicker 43 Yd Field Goal3–24
- Q20:45Ladd McConkey 27 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)3–21
- Q28:55Will Reichard 54 Yd Field Goal3–14
- Q213:08Kimani Vidal 3 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–14
- Q14:01Oronde Gadsden II 8 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:01Oronde Gadsden II 8 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)MIN 0 – 7 LAC · LAC 59% → 77% +17LAC 59% → 77%+17 pts
- Q213:08Kimani Vidal 3 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)MIN 0 – 14 LAC · LAC 77% → 90% +13LAC 77% → 90%+13 pts
- Q28:55Will Reichard 54 Yd Field GoalMIN 3 – 14 LAC · MIN 10% → 14% +5MIN 10% → 14%+5 pts
- Q20:45Ladd McConkey 27 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)MIN 3 – 21 LAC · LAC 88% → 96% +9LAC 88% → 96%+9 pts
- Q34:36Jordan Addison 4 Yd pass from Carson Wentz (Will Reichard Kick)MIN 10 – 24 LAC · MIN <1% → 5% +4MIN <1% → 5%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML MIN +145 / LAC -170
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 55.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -152
- MIN +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 20.5 – 24.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −62 | +6 | MIN: Carson Wentz, usually Sam Darnold · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +37 Elo | LAC 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 56.5% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 60.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| MIN | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 3224.2 | Points scored | 21.620th of 32 |
| 10th of 3220.8 | Points allowed | 23.318th of 32 |
| 11th of 32+3.3 | Margin | −1.723rd of 32 |
| 17th of 325.42 | Yards per play | 5.728th of 32 |
| 9th of 325.22 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4118th of 32 |
| 1st of 321–0 | Road vs home | 1–223rd of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 149220th of 32 |
| 11th of 321559 | Elo rating | 149318th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 3–3 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 0–1 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.