Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing19/29, 250 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Justin HerbertRushing9 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- Oronde GadsdenReceiving5 REC, 68 YDS
Titans- Cam WardPassing12/21, 145 YDS
- Tony PollardRushing10 CAR, 56 YDS
- Elic AyomanorReceiving3 REC, 46 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q44:19Joey Slye 37 Yd Field Goal27–20
- Q412:58Justin Herbert 1 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)27–17
- Q20:20Cameron Dicker 52 Yd Field Goal20–17
- Q25:02Joey Slye 49 Yd Field Goal17–17
- Q28:37Quentin Johnston 19 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)17–14
- Q214:06Cameron Dicker 27 Yd Field Goal10–14
- Q12:55Chimere Dike 67 Yd Punt Return (Joey Slye Kick)7–14
- Q17:24Scott Matlock 2 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–7
- Q111:19Cody Barton 24 Yd Interception Return (Joey Slye Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Cody Barton 24 Yd Interception Return (Joey Slye Kick)LAC 0 – 7 TEN · TEN 19% → 33% +15TEN 19% → 33%+15 pts
- Q17:24Scott Matlock 2 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 7 – 7 TEN · LAC 65% → 80% +15LAC 65% → 80%+15 pts
- Q12:55Chimere Dike 67 Yd Punt Return (Joey Slye Kick)LAC 7 – 14 TEN · TEN 21% → 37% +17TEN 21% → 37%+17 pts
- Q28:37Quentin Johnston 19 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 17 – 14 TEN · LAC 66% → 83% +17LAC 66% → 83%+17 pts
- Q412:58Justin Herbert 1 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)LAC 27 – 17 TEN · LAC 80% → 96% +17LAC 80% → 96%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -9.5
- ML LAC -650 / TEN +425
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -10.5
- LAC 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 81.9%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -455
- TEN +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 27.0 – 17.5 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1263 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +6 | −26 | LAC: Justin Herbert · TEN: Cam Ward, usually Will Levis (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +263 Elo | LAC 81.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 77.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 80.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 82.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LAC | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 3223.5 | Points scored | 13.832nd of 32 |
| 12th of 3221.6 | Points allowed | 28.830th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.9 | Margin | −15.032nd of 32 |
| 11th of 325.76 | Yards per play | 4.2231st of 32 |
| 10th of 325.21 | Yards allowed per play | 5.9128th of 32 |
| 5th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 0–331st of 32 |
| 16th of 321504 | Opponent Elo | 15247th of 32 |
| 12th of 321529 | Elo rating | 126332nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 2–6 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 1–1 TEN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.