Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Steelers- Aaron RodgersPassing16/31, 161 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- Jaylen WarrenRushing14 CAR, 70 YDS
- Roman WilsonReceiving2 REC, 35 YDS, 1 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing20/33, 220 YDS, 1 TD
- Kimani VidalRushing25 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving4 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:57Roman Wilson 27 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Chris Boswell Kick)10–25
- Q44:54Cameron Dicker 42 Yd Field Goal3–25
- Q49:26Kimani Vidal 2 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)3–22
- Q36:07Cameron Dicker 59 Yd Field Goal3–15
- Q20:12Ladd McConkey 15 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)3–12
- Q27:32Cameron Dicker 32 Yd Field Goal3–5
- Q15:09Team Safety3–2
- Q110:25Chris Boswell 59 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:25Chris Boswell 59 Yd Field GoalPIT 3 – 0 LAC · PIT 38% → 46% +8PIT 38% → 46%+8 pts
- Q15:09Team SafetyPIT 3 – 2 LAC · LAC 53% → 59% +5LAC 53% → 59%+5 pts
- Q27:32Cameron Dicker 32 Yd Field GoalPIT 3 – 5 LAC · LAC 57% → 66% +9LAC 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q20:12Ladd McConkey 15 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)PIT 3 – 12 LAC · LAC 66% → 85% +19LAC 66% → 85%+19 pts
- Q36:07Cameron Dicker 59 Yd Field GoalPIT 3 – 15 LAC · LAC 87% → 93% +5LAC 87% → 93%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 63.9% of 119 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -3.5
- ML PIT +159 / LAC -186
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -2
- LAC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- LAC: Elo 56.9%, market 62.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -165
- PIT +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 21.0 – 24.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +17 | +6 | PIT: Aaron Rodgers · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +49 Elo | LAC 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 58.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 62.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| PIT | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3225.3 | Points scored | 23.916th of 32 |
| 20th of 3224.4 | Points allowed | 21.49th of 32 |
| 14th of 32+0.9 | Margin | +2.412th of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.18 | Yards per play | 5.7011th of 32 |
| 21st of 325.55 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1610th of 32 |
| 7th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 32 |
| 16th of 321507 | Opponent Elo | 147026th of 32 |
| 17th of 321514 | Elo rating | 153814th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 1–0 LAC in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.