Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors KC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing15/31, 203 YDS, 1 TD
- Woody MarksRushing26 CAR, 68 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving4 REC, 121 YDS
Chiefs- Patrick MahomesPassing14/33, 160 YDS, 3 INT
- Patrick MahomesRushing7 CAR, 59 YDS
- Xavier WorthyReceiving3 REC, 55 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:30Ka'imi Fairbairn 28 Yd Field Goal20–10
- Q46:56Dare Ogunbowale 5 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)17–10
- Q31:50Harrison Butker 36 Yd Field Goal10–10
- Q39:52Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)10–7
- Q29:24Woody Marks 9 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–0
- Q14:18Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:18Ka'imi Fairbairn 35 Yd Field GoalHOU 3 – 0 KC · HOU 36% → 44% +8HOU 36% → 44%+8 pts
- Q29:24Woody Marks 9 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 10 – 0 KC · HOU 47% → 68% +21HOU 47% → 68%+21 pts
- Q39:52Kareem Hunt 2 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick)HOU 10 – 7 KC · KC 23% → 48% +25KC 23% → 48%+25 pts
- Q31:50Harrison Butker 36 Yd Field GoalHOU 10 – 10 KC · KC 44% → 58% +14KC 44% → 58%+14 pts
- Q46:56Dare Ogunbowale 5 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 17 – 10 KC · HOU 45% → 88% +43HOU 45% → 88%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chiefs 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- KC -4.5
- ML HOU +180 / KC -218
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC -1.5
- KC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- KC: Elo 56.3%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- KC -186
- HOU +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 18.5 – 23.0 KC
- Posted spread, posted total 41.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1602 | 1622 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +17 | +5 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · KC: Patrick Mahomes (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | KC +44 Elo | KC 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 66.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 58.9% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 65.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 3221.9 | Points scored | 25.49th of 32 |
| 1st of 3216.5 | Points allowed | 19.37th of 32 |
| 10th of 32+5.4 | Margin | +6.17th of 32 |
| 24th of 325.07 | Yards per play | 5.698th of 32 |
| 4th of 324.67 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5522nd of 32 |
| 7th of 327–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 13th of 323–3 | Road vs home | 5–13rd of 32 |
| 6th of 321527 | Opponent Elo | 150915th of 32 |
| 9th of 321602 | Elo rating | 16227th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–6 | 5–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–9 | 4–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 0–2 KC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.