Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- C.J. StroudPassing22/35, 276 YDS, 1 INT
- Woody MarksRushing19 CAR, 64 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving5 REC, 98 YDS
Colts- Daniel JonesPassing14/27, 201 YDS, 2 TD
- Jonathan TaylorRushing21 CAR, 85 YDS
- Alec PierceReceiving4 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q48:40Michael Badgley 42 Yd Field Goal20–16
- Q412:38Nico Collins 7 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)20–13
- Q32:51Tyler Warren 12 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)13–13
- Q36:47Ka'imi Fairbairn 43 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q25:08Nick Chubb 4 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)10–6
- Q28:41Alec Pierce 19 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley PAT Failed)3–6
- Q17:55Ka'imi Fairbairn 23 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:41Alec Pierce 19 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley PAT Failed)HOU 3 – 6 IND · IND 49% → 67% +18IND 49% → 67%+18 pts
- Q25:08Nick Chubb 4 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 10 – 6 IND · HOU 33% → 55% +22HOU 33% → 55%+22 pts
- Q32:51Tyler Warren 12 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (Michael Badgley Kick)HOU 13 – 13 IND · IND 25% → 55% +30IND 25% → 55%+30 pts
- Q412:38Nico Collins 7 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)HOU 20 – 13 IND · HOU 45% → 80% +35HOU 45% → 80%+35 pts
- Q48:40Michael Badgley 42 Yd Field GoalHOU 20 – 16 IND · IND 14% → 29% +14IND 14% → 29%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Colts 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML HOU +145 / IND -170
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- IND 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.3 pts
- IND: Elo 50.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- IND -149
- HOU +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 20.0 – 23.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1582 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +18 | +14 | HOU: C.J. Stroud · IND: Daniel Jones (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +2 Elo | IND 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 52.4% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 59.9% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 3222.1 | Points scored | 31.01st of 32 |
| 2nd of 3216.5 | Points allowed | 20.89th of 32 |
| 9th of 32+5.5 | Margin | +10.22nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.07 | Yards per play | 6.311st of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.61 | Yards allowed per play | 5.2114th of 32 |
| 8th of 326–4 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 32 |
| 16th of 322–3 | Road vs home | 5–01st of 32 |
| 10th of 321517 | Opponent Elo | 145431st of 32 |
| 9th of 321582 | Elo rating | 155114th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–6 | 8–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–8 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–1 IND in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.