Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing24/34, 253 YDS, 2 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing17 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- Khalil ShakirReceiving8 REC, 110 YDS
Texans- Davis MillsPassing16/30, 153 YDS, 2 TD
- Woody MarksRushing16 CAR, 74 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving3 REC, 55 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:44Matt Prater 38 Yd Field Goal19–23
- Q30:17Ka'imi Fairbairn 26 Yd Field Goal16–23
- Q20:05Jayden Higgins 8 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)16–20
- Q21:43Ray Davis 97 Yd Kickoff Return (Matt Prater Kick)16–13
- Q21:56Ka'imi Fairbairn 43 Yd Field Goal9–13
- Q23:47Christian Kirk 2 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)9–10
- Q29:35Matt Prater 44 Yd Field Goal9–3
- Q14:32Ka'imi Fairbairn 24 Yd Field Goal6–3
- Q19:11James Cook III 45 Yd Rush (Matt Prater PAT Failed)6–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:47Christian Kirk 2 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)BUF 9 – 10 HOU · HOU 19% → 39% +20HOU 19% → 39%+20 pts
- Q21:43Ray Davis 97 Yd Kickoff Return (Matt Prater Kick)BUF 16 – 13 HOU · BUF 50% → 73% +23BUF 50% → 73%+23 pts
- Q20:05Jayden Higgins 8 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick)BUF 16 – 20 HOU · HOU 27% → 51% +23HOU 27% → 51%+23 pts
- Q30:17Ka'imi Fairbairn 26 Yd Field GoalBUF 16 – 23 HOU · HOU 60% → 74% +13HOU 60% → 74%+13 pts
- Q45:44Matt Prater 38 Yd Field GoalBUF 19 – 23 HOU · BUF 10% → 25% +15BUF 10% → 25%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -4.5
- ML BUF -245 / HOU +205
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -5
- BUF 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- BUF: Elo 67.2%, market 68.4%
- Fair odds
- BUF -216
- HOU +216 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 24.5 – 20.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1553 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −99 | BUF: Josh Allen · HOU: Davis Mills, usually C.J. Stroud (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +124 Elo | BUF 67.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 67.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 68.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 3229.2 | Points scored | 22.021st of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.9 | Points allowed | 16.31st of 32 |
| 7th of 32+6.3 | Margin | +5.79th of 32 |
| 2nd of 326.25 | Yards per play | 5.1025th of 32 |
| 22nd of 325.56 | Yards allowed per play | 4.572nd of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 3–212th of 32 |
| 24th of 321479 | Opponent Elo | 151313th of 32 |
| 8th of 321615 | Elo rating | 155312th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–5 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 0–3 |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 0–1 HOU in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.