Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing16/28, 173 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Sean TuckerRushing19 CAR, 106 YDS, 2 TD
- Sterling ShepardReceiving4 REC, 54 YDS
Bills- Josh AllenPassing19/30, 317 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing16 CAR, 48 YDS
- Tyrell ShaversReceiving4 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q42:35Josh Allen 9 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)32–44
- Q49:06Josh Allen 5 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)32–37
- Q413:38Sean Tucker 28 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)32–31
- Q33:48James Cook III 25 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)26–31
- Q35:01Matt Prater 39 Yd Field Goal26–24
- Q37:26Sean Tucker 6 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–21
- Q20:00Chase McLaughlin 24 Yd Field Goal20–21
- Q20:36Ty Johnson 52 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)17–21
- Q25:37Sean Tucker 43 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)17–14
- Q28:52Tyrell Shavers 43 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)10–14
- Q212:00Baker Mayfield 4 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)10–7
- Q14:09Josh Allen 2 Yd Rush (Matt Prater Kick)3–7
- Q18:54Chase McLaughlin 23 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q20:36Ty Johnson 52 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)TB 17 – 21 BUF · BUF 51% → 74% +23BUF 51% → 74%+23 pts
- Q37:26Sean Tucker 6 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)TB 26 – 21 BUF · TB 36% → 60% +24TB 36% → 60%+24 pts
- Q33:48James Cook III 25 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)TB 26 – 31 BUF · BUF 50% → 79% +28BUF 50% → 79%+28 pts
- Q413:38Sean Tucker 28 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)TB 32 – 31 BUF · TB 19% → 47% +28TB 19% → 47%+28 pts
- Q49:06Josh Allen 5 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)TB 32 – 37 BUF · BUF 50% → 83% +33BUF 50% → 83%+33 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -6.5
- ML TB +190 / BUF -225
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -3
- BUF 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- BUF: Elo 61.2%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- BUF -197
- TB +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 19.0 – 25.5 BUF
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1591 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | — | TB: Baker Mayfield · BUF: Josh Allen (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +79 Elo | BUF 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 63.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 66.4% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 3224.4 | Points scored | 27.66th of 32 |
| 14th of 3222.9 | Points allowed | 21.911th of 32 |
| 13th of 32+1.6 | Margin | +5.79th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.31 | Yards per play | 6.103rd of 32 |
| 19th of 325.43 | Yards allowed per play | 5.5924th of 32 |
| 3rd of 324–1 | Road vs home | 4–13rd of 32 |
| 6th of 321526 | Opponent Elo | 147426th of 32 |
| 13th of 321547 | Elo rating | 15919th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 0–1 BUF in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.