Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing15/24, 152 YDS
- Sean TuckerRushing12 CAR, 42 YDS, 1 TD
- Tez JohnsonReceiving5 REC, 43 YDS
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing15/21, 136 YDS, 1 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing6 CAR, 21 YDS
- Rashid ShaheedReceiving9 REC, 75 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q49:26Chase McLaughlin 54 Yd Field Goal23–3
- Q414:03Chase McLaughlin 52 Yd Field Goal20–3
- Q34:02Chase McLaughlin 55 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q310:08Sean Tucker 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)14–3
- Q20:01Blake Grupe 48 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q26:41Anthony Nelson 3 Yd Interception Return (Chase McLaughlin Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:41Anthony Nelson 3 Yd Interception Return (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 7 – 0 NO · TB 63% → 81% +19TB 63% → 81%+19 pts
- Q20:01Blake Grupe 48 Yd Field GoalTB 7 – 3 NO · NO 18% → 26% +8NO 18% → 26%+8 pts
- Q310:08Sean Tucker 1 Yd Rush (Chase McLaughlin Kick)TB 14 – 3 NO · TB 74% → 91% +17TB 74% → 91%+17 pts
- Q34:02Chase McLaughlin 55 Yd Field GoalTB 17 – 3 NO · TB 93% → 96% +4TB 93% → 96%+4 pts
- Q414:03Chase McLaughlin 52 Yd Field GoalTB 20 – 3 NO · TB 98% → >99% +1TB 98% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- TB -3.5
- ML TB -210 / NO +175
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -8
- TB 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.4 pts
- TB: Elo 76.5%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -194
- NO +194 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 24.5 – 21.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 45.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1365 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | −47 | TB: Baker Mayfield · NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +205 Elo | TB 76.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 73.7% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 66.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| TB | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.9 | Points scored | 17.928th of 32 |
| 22nd of 3225.0 | Points allowed | 26.625th of 32 |
| 16th of 32−0.1 | Margin | −8.729th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.47 | Yards per play | 4.7730th of 32 |
| 17th of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.4015th of 32 |
| 3rd of 323–1 | Road vs home | 1–329th of 32 |
| 6th of 321532 | Opponent Elo | 150216th of 32 |
| 11th of 321560 | Elo rating | 136529th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 3–1 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.