New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Saints- Spencer RattlerPassing20/32, 233 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- Alvin KamaraRushing11 CAR, 28 YDS
- Chris OlaveReceiving5 REC, 98 YDS, 2 TD
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing15/26, 172 YDS, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing19 CAR, 124 YDS, 1 TD
- DJ MooreReceiving3 REC, 43 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q46:22Jake Moody 33 Yd Field Goal14–26
- Q34:07Jake Moody 24 Yd Field Goal14–23
- Q39:40Chris Olave 14 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)14–20
- Q20:22Chris Olave 21 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)7–20
- Q22:51Kyle Monangai 1 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)0–20
- Q29:05D'Andre Swift 11 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)0–13
- Q214:06Jake Moody 39 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q19:34Jake Moody 27 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:34Jake Moody 27 Yd Field GoalNO 0 – 3 CHI · CHI 64% → 71% +7CHI 64% → 71%+7 pts
- Q214:06Jake Moody 39 Yd Field GoalNO 0 – 6 CHI · CHI 71% → 78% +7CHI 71% → 78%+7 pts
- Q29:05D'Andre Swift 11 Yd Rush (Jake Moody Kick)NO 0 – 13 CHI · CHI 78% → 91% +13CHI 78% → 91%+13 pts
- Q39:40Chris Olave 14 Yd pass from Spencer Rattler (Blake Grupe Kick)NO 14 – 20 CHI · NO 6% → 20% +14NO 6% → 20%+14 pts
- Q34:07Jake Moody 24 Yd Field GoalNO 14 – 23 CHI · CHI 81% → 89% +8CHI 81% → 89%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bears 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -3.5
- ML NO +170 / CHI -200
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -7.5
- CHI 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.7 pts
- CHI: Elo 74.0%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -186
- NO +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 20.0 – 23.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 43.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −48 | +3 | NO: Spencer Rattler, usually Derek Carr · CHI: Caleb Williams (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +182 Elo | CHI 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 70.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 73.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 65.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NO | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3218.5 | Points scored | 25.210th of 32 |
| 25th of 3226.7 | Points allowed | 28.227th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−8.2 | Margin | −3.023rd of 32 |
| 27th of 324.77 | Yards per play | 5.5315th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.34 | Yards allowed per play | 6.4632nd of 32 |
| 26th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–117th of 32 |
| 16th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 151612th of 32 |
| 28th of 321381 | Elo rating | 147520th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–4 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.