New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, NFL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Patriots- Drake MayePassing16/31, 270 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- TreVeyon HendersonRushing14 CAR, 147 YDS, 2 TD
- Mack HollinsReceiving6 REC, 106 YDS
Buccaneers- Baker MayfieldPassing28/43, 273 YDS, 3 TD
- Sean TuckerRushing9 CAR, 53 YDS
- Emeka EgbukaReceiving6 REC, 115 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q40:33Tez Johnson 11 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)28–23
- Q41:31TreVeyon Henderson 69 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)28–16
- Q34:12Tez Johnson 10 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)21–16
- Q314:12TreVeyon Henderson 55 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)21–10
- Q20:00Stefon Diggs 1 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)14–10
- Q27:16Chase McLaughlin 36 Yd Field Goal7–10
- Q10:00Kyle Williams 72 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)7–7
- Q111:23Emeka Egbuka 21 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:23Emeka Egbuka 21 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Chase McLaughlin Kick)NE 0 – 7 TB · TB 59% → 75% +16TB 59% → 75%+16 pts
- Q10:00Kyle Williams 72 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 7 – 7 TB · NE 24% → 42% +18NE 24% → 42%+18 pts
- Q20:00Stefon Diggs 1 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 14 – 10 TB · NE 33% → 58% +24NE 33% → 58%+24 pts
- Q314:12TreVeyon Henderson 55 Yd Rush (Andy Borregales Kick)NE 21 – 10 TB · NE 58% → 80% +22NE 58% → 80%+22 pts
- Q34:12Tez Johnson 10 Yd pass from Baker Mayfield (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)NE 21 – 16 TB · TB 14% → 33% +20TB 14% → 33%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Buccaneers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- TB -2.5
- ML NE +135 / TB -155
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB -3.5
- TB 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- TB: Elo 61.5%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- TB -144
- NE +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NE 23.0 – 25.5 TB
- Posted spread, posted total 48.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NE | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +23 | — | NE: Drake Maye · TB: Baker Mayfield (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TB +81 Elo | TB 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 59.1% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 59.0% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| NE | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 3226.3 | Points scored | 24.614th of 32 |
| 6th of 3218.8 | Points allowed | 22.313th of 32 |
| 7th of 32+7.6 | Margin | +2.413th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.71 | Yards per play | 5.2719th of 32 |
| 18th of 325.41 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1911th of 32 |
| 1st of 324–0 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 32 |
| 32nd of 321409 | Opponent Elo | 150814th of 32 |
| 17th of 321507 | Elo rating | 157610th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NE |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.