Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bills- Josh AllenPassing28/40, 306 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- James Cook IIIRushing13 CAR, 53 YDS
- Khalil ShakirReceiving7 REC, 58 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing15/21, 173 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing22 CAR, 174 YDS, 2 TD
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving5 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q43:17De'Von Achane 35 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)13–30
- Q43:36Jackson Hawes 26 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Matt Prater Kick)13–23
- Q46:31De'Von Achane 59 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)6–23
- Q412:36Keon Coleman 35 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)6–16
- Q23:03Riley Patterson 46 Yd Field Goal0–16
- Q214:52Jaylen Waddle 38 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson PAT Failed)0–13
- Q14:49Malik Washington 9 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:49Malik Washington 9 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson Kick)BUF 0 – 7 MIA · MIA 23% → 40% +17MIA 23% → 40%+17 pts
- Q214:52Jaylen Waddle 38 Yd pass from Tua Tagovailoa (Riley Patterson PAT Failed)BUF 0 – 13 MIA · MIA 42% → 60% +17MIA 42% → 60%+17 pts
- Q23:03Riley Patterson 46 Yd Field GoalBUF 0 – 16 MIA · MIA 69% → 77% +8MIA 69% → 77%+8 pts
- Q412:36Keon Coleman 35 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)BUF 6 – 16 MIA · BUF 3% → 16% +12BUF 3% → 16%+12 pts
- Q46:31De'Von Achane 59 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick)BUF 6 – 23 MIA · MIA 95% → >99% +5MIA 95% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bills 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BUF -8.5
- ML BUF -500 / MIA +360
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF -8.5
- BUF 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- BUF: Elo 77.1%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- BUF -380
- MIA +380 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 29.5 – 21.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 50.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1652 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | — | +13 | BUF: Josh Allen · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +210 Elo | BUF 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 76.2% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BUF 79.1% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BUF | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 3229.4 | Points scored | 20.026th of 32 |
| 9th of 3220.9 | Points allowed | 27.024th of 32 |
| 4th of 32+8.5 | Margin | −7.027th of 32 |
| 3rd of 326.14 | Yards per play | 5.1820th of 32 |
| 19th of 325.42 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8828th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 32 |
| 29th of 321457 | Opponent Elo | 149020th of 32 |
| 3rd of 321652 | Elo rating | 139325th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BUF |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 4–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BUF 5–0 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.