Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing18/23, 204 YDS, 4 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing19 CAR, 119 YDS
- Zay FlowersReceiving5 REC, 64 YDS
Dolphins- Tua TagovailoaPassing25/40, 261 YDS, 1 INT
- De'Von AchaneRushing14 CAR, 67 YDS
- Jaylen WaddleReceiving6 REC, 82 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q34:15Rashod Bateman 9 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)28–6
- Q38:09Charlie Kolar 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)21–6
- Q27:57Riley Patterson 43 Yd Field Goal14–6
- Q214:10Mark Andrews 20 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)14–3
- Q18:25Mark Andrews 2 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)7–3
- Q112:07Riley Patterson 49 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q112:07Riley Patterson 49 Yd Field GoalBAL 0 – 3 MIA · MIA 22% → 28% +6MIA 22% → 28%+6 pts
- Q18:25Mark Andrews 2 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 7 – 3 MIA · BAL 71% → 85% +14BAL 71% → 85%+14 pts
- Q214:10Mark Andrews 20 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 14 – 3 MIA · BAL 84% → 93% +10BAL 84% → 93%+10 pts
- Q27:57Riley Patterson 43 Yd Field GoalBAL 14 – 6 MIA · MIA 7% → 10% +4MIA 7% → 10%+4 pts
- Q38:09Charlie Kolar 3 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 21 – 6 MIA · BAL 90% → 98% +7BAL 90% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -7.5
- ML BAL -500 / MIA +360
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -6
- BAL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 70.8%, market 79.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -370
- MIA +370 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 29.5 – 22.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 51.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1585 | 1414 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +34 | +14 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +154 Elo | BAL 70.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 78.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 72.8% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 78.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 3224.9 | Points scored | 21.821st of 32 |
| 30th of 3230.0 | Points allowed | 26.926th of 32 |
| 25th of 32−5.1 | Margin | −5.124th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.76 | Yards per play | 5.1622nd of 32 |
| 25th of 325.71 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8627th of 32 |
| 29th of 320–2 | Road vs home | 1–225th of 32 |
| 1st of 321562 | Opponent Elo | 147127th of 32 |
| 9th of 321585 | Elo rating | 141424th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 4–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 4–4 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 6–1 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1 | 7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–0 MIA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.