Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bears- Caleb WilliamsPassing25/38, 285 YDS, 1 INT
- D'Andre SwiftRushing11 CAR, 45 YDS, 1 TD
- Rome OdunzeReceiving7 REC, 114 YDS
Ravens- Tyler HuntleyPassing17/22, 186 YDS, 1 TD
- Derrick HenryRushing21 CAR, 71 YDS, 2 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving7 REC, 63 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:09Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)16–30
- Q45:06Cairo Santos 47 Yd Field Goal16–23
- Q48:13Charlie Kolar 10 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Tyler Loop Kick)13–23
- Q412:22D'Andre Swift 2 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)13–16
- Q33:35Tyler Loop 32 Yd Field Goal6–16
- Q310:05Tyler Loop 28 Yd Field Goal6–13
- Q21:06Tyler Loop 42 Yd Field Goal6–10
- Q28:15Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)6–7
- Q10:03Cairo Santos 39 Yd Field Goal6–0
- Q16:50Cairo Santos 32 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:15Derrick Henry 2 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)CHI 6 – 7 BAL · BAL 36% → 57% +22BAL 36% → 57%+22 pts
- Q21:06Tyler Loop 42 Yd Field GoalCHI 6 – 10 BAL · BAL 57% → 67% +10BAL 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q310:05Tyler Loop 28 Yd Field GoalCHI 6 – 13 BAL · BAL 68% → 78% +10BAL 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q412:22D'Andre Swift 2 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick)CHI 13 – 16 BAL · CHI 7% → 32% +24CHI 7% → 32%+24 pts
- Q48:13Charlie Kolar 10 Yd pass from Tyler Huntley (Tyler Loop Kick)CHI 13 – 23 BAL · BAL 71% → 96% +25BAL 71% → 96%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -2.5
- ML CHI +125 / BAL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 37%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -5
- BAL 33%
- Ratings vs. market
- −24.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 33.2%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- CHI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 21.0 – 23.5 BAL
- Posted spread, posted total 44.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +2 | −202 | CHI: Caleb Williams · BAL: Tyler Huntley, usually Lamar Jackson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +122 Elo | CHI 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 62.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CHI | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.3 | Points scored | 24.015th of 32 |
| 25th of 3225.8 | Points allowed | 32.332nd of 32 |
| 19th of 32−0.5 | Margin | −8.327th of 32 |
| 14th of 325.57 | Yards per play | 5.7111th of 32 |
| 32nd of 326.19 | Yards allowed per play | 5.6727th of 32 |
| 6th of 322–1 | Road vs home | 1–328th of 32 |
| 23rd of 321484 | Opponent Elo | 15751st of 32 |
| 19th of 321491 | Elo rating | 153712th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 0–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.