Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Texans- Davis MillsPassing26/41, 274 YDS, 1 TD
- Woody MarksRushing18 CAR, 44 YDS
- Nico CollinsReceiving9 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
Titans- Cam WardPassing24/37, 194 YDS, 1 TD
- Cam WardRushing3 CAR, 33 YDS
- Chig OkonkwoReceiving3 REC, 56 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q40:00Matthew Wright 35 Yd Field Goal16–13
- Q41:35Van Jefferson 4 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)13–13
- Q411:59Matthew Wright 43 Yd Field Goal13–6
- Q31:32Matthew Wright 41 Yd Field Goal10–6
- Q37:21Nico Collins 3 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Matthew Wright Kick)7–6
- Q310:45Joey Slye 47 Yd Field Goal0–6
- Q10:50Joey Slye 56 Yd Field Goal0–3
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:45Joey Slye 47 Yd Field GoalHOU 0 – 6 TEN · TEN 49% → 60% +11TEN 49% → 60%+11 pts
- Q37:21Nico Collins 3 Yd pass from Davis Mills (Matthew Wright Kick)HOU 7 – 6 TEN · HOU 37% → 65% +28HOU 37% → 65%+28 pts
- Q31:32Matthew Wright 41 Yd Field GoalHOU 10 – 6 TEN · HOU 64% → 77% +12HOU 64% → 77%+12 pts
- Q41:35Van Jefferson 4 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick)HOU 13 – 13 TEN · TEN <1% → 47% +47TEN <1% → 47%+47 pts
- Q40:00Matthew Wright 35 Yd Field GoalHOU 16 – 13 TEN · HOU 58% → 100% +42HOU 58% → 100%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Texans 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 71.4% of 105 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -5.5
- ML HOU -240 / TEN +200
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -6.5
- HOU 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 72.4%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -215
- TEN +215 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 21.5 – 16.0 TEN
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1254 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −110 | −23 | HOU: Davis Mills, usually C.J. Stroud · TEN: Cam Ward (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +167 Elo | HOU 72.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 71.0% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 68.3% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| HOU | Stat | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 3222.7 | Points scored | 14.432nd of 32 |
| 1st of 3216.7 | Points allowed | 28.630th of 32 |
| 8th of 32+6.0 | Margin | −14.132nd of 32 |
| 23rd of 325.16 | Yards per play | 4.2631st of 32 |
| 2nd of 324.63 | Yards allowed per play | 5.8426th of 32 |
| 21st of 321–3 | Road vs home | 0–432nd of 32 |
| 5th of 321529 | Opponent Elo | 15393rd of 32 |
| 14th of 321544 | Elo rating | 125432nd of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | — |
| Underdog | 0–3 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 3–6 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–1 TEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.