Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing18/23, 165 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Ashton JeantyRushing15 CAR, 31 YDS
- Brock BowersReceiving4 REC, 63 YDS, 2 TD
Chargers- Justin HerbertPassing15/20, 151 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Kimani VidalRushing25 CAR, 126 YDS, 1 TD
- Ladd McConkeyReceiving4 REC, 39 YDS, 1 TD
Scoring summary
- Q41:55Jaret Patterson 2 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)14–31
- Q47:49Brock Bowers 6 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)14–24
- Q414:49Cameron Dicker 56 Yd Field Goal7–24
- Q32:23Ladd McConkey 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–21
- Q314:03Kimani Vidal 59 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)7–14
- Q21:50Brock Bowers 6 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)7–7
- Q14:21Quentin Johnston 10 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)0–7
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:21Quentin Johnston 10 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LV 0 – 7 LAC · LAC 79% → 90% +11LAC 79% → 90%+11 pts
- Q21:50Brock Bowers 6 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 7 – 7 LAC · LV 11% → 26% +15LV 11% → 26%+15 pts
- Q314:03Kimani Vidal 59 Yd Rush (Cameron Dicker Kick)LV 7 – 14 LAC · LAC 73% → 89% +16LAC 73% → 89%+16 pts
- Q32:23Ladd McConkey 7 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Cameron Dicker Kick)LV 7 – 21 LAC · LAC 90% → 98% +8LAC 90% → 98%+8 pts
- Q47:49Brock Bowers 6 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)LV 14 – 24 LAC · LV <1% → 2% +2LV <1% → 2%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Chargers 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 85.7% of 35 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -9.5
- ML LV +400 / LAC -600
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -11
- LAC 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 83.0%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -433
- LV +433 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LV 15.5 – 25.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 40.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LV | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1249 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +26 | +5 | LV: Geno Smith · LAC: Justin Herbert (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +276 Elo | LAC 83.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 80.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 82.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 81.2% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| LV | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 3215.0 | Points scored | 22.419th of 32 |
| 24th of 3225.2 | Points allowed | 21.612th of 32 |
| 31st of 32−10.2 | Margin | +0.716th of 32 |
| 30th of 324.59 | Yards per play | 5.4214th of 32 |
| 13th of 325.20 | Yards allowed per play | 5.088th of 32 |
| 30th of 321–9 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 32 |
| 24th of 321–4 | Road vs home | 3–216th of 32 |
| 18th of 321501 | Opponent Elo | 146029th of 32 |
| 31st of 321249 | Elo rating | 151017th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LV |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–7 | 5–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–7 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LV 1–4 LAC in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.