Cleveland Browns at Las Vegas Raiders, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LV; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Browns- Shedeur SandersPassing11/20, 209 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing16 CAR, 47 YDS, 2 TD
- Dylan SampsonReceiving2 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD
Raiders- Geno SmithPassing30/44, 285 YDS, 1 TD
- Ashton JeantyRushing17 CAR, 50 YDS
- Tyler LockettReceiving4 REC, 62 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q45:11Ashton Jeanty 5 Yd pass from Geno Smith (Daniel Carlson Kick)24–10
- Q48:18Dylan Sampson 66 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)24–3
- Q412:08Andre Szmyt 53 Yd Field Goal17–3
- Q29:12Daniel Carlson 41 Yd Field Goal14–3
- Q10:48Quinshon Judkins 2 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)14–0
- Q18:24Quinshon Judkins 8 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)7–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:24Quinshon Judkins 8 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 7 – 0 LV · CLE 41% → 59% +18CLE 41% → 59%+18 pts
- Q10:48Quinshon Judkins 2 Yd Rush (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 14 – 0 LV · CLE 61% → 79% +17CLE 61% → 79%+17 pts
- Q29:12Daniel Carlson 41 Yd Field GoalCLE 14 – 3 LV · LV 19% → 26% +7LV 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q412:08Andre Szmyt 53 Yd Field GoalCLE 17 – 3 LV · CLE 92% → 97% +4CLE 92% → 97%+4 pts
- Q48:18Dylan Sampson 66 Yd pass from Shedeur Sanders (Andre Szmyt Kick)CLE 24 – 3 LV · CLE 99% → >99% +1CLE 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raiders 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 62.9% of 143 graded games.
- Market
- LV -3.5
- ML CLE +140 / LV -165
- Pre-line forecast
- LV 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LV -2
- LV 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- LV: Elo 56.7%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LV -148
- CLE +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 16.5 – 20.0 LV
- Posted spread, posted total 36.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | LV | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1350 | 1289 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | −43 | +29 | CLE: Shedeur Sanders, usually Dillon Gabriel · LV: Geno Smith (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LV +47 Elo | LV 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LV 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LV 55.6% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LV 59.7% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| CLE | Stat | LV |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 3216.2 | Points scored | 15.530th of 32 |
| 17th of 3223.4 | Points allowed | 25.324th of 32 |
| 28th of 32−7.2 | Margin | −9.830th of 32 |
| 32nd of 324.05 | Yards per play | 4.7330th of 32 |
| 5th of 324.82 | Yards allowed per play | 5.1611th of 32 |
| 31st of 320–5 | Road vs home | 1–427th of 32 |
| 6th of 321531 | Opponent Elo | 150715th of 32 |
| 28th of 321350 | Elo rating | 128931st of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  LV |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–5 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 0–1 LV in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.