Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns, NFL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ravens- Lamar JacksonPassing14/25, 193 YDS, 2 INT
- Derrick HenryRushing18 CAR, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- Zay FlowersReceiving3 REC, 78 YDS
Browns- Dillon GabrielPassing7/10, 68 YDS
- Quinshon JudkinsRushing17 CAR, 59 YDS
- Cedric TillmanReceiving3 REC, 52 YDS
Scoring summary
- Q42:31Mark Andrews 35 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)23–16
- Q44:59Tyler Loop 44 Yd Field Goal16–16
- Q414:06Tyler Loop 24 Yd Field Goal13–16
- Q20:58Andre Szmyt 46 Yd Field Goal10–16
- Q24:17Derrick Henry 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)10–13
- Q27:43Devin Bush 23 Yd Interception Return (Andre Szmyt Kick)3–13
- Q28:44Andre Szmyt 24 Yd Field Goal3–6
- Q10:00Andre Szmyt 30 Yd Field Goal3–3
- Q14:55Tyler Loop 25 Yd Field Goal3–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:43Devin Bush 23 Yd Interception Return (Andre Szmyt Kick)BAL 3 – 13 CLE · CLE 36% → 57% +22CLE 36% → 57%+22 pts
- Q24:17Derrick Henry 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 10 – 13 CLE · BAL 40% → 63% +23BAL 40% → 63%+23 pts
- Q414:06Tyler Loop 24 Yd Field GoalBAL 13 – 16 CLE · BAL 34% → 49% +15BAL 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q44:59Tyler Loop 44 Yd Field GoalBAL 16 – 16 CLE · BAL 33% → 59% +26BAL 33% → 59%+26 pts
- Q42:31Mark Andrews 35 Yd Rush (Tyler Loop Kick)BAL 23 – 16 CLE · BAL 56% → 99% +43BAL 56% → 99%+43 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Ravens 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NFL favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 69.3% of 75 graded games.
- Market
- BAL -7.5
- ML BAL -425 / CLE +320
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL -11
- BAL 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 83.3%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -350
- CLE +350 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 22.5 – 15.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 37.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1622 | 1357 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NFL |
| Quarterbacks | +31 | −20 | BAL: Lamar Jackson · CLE: Dillon Gabriel, usually Deshaun Watson (against each team's recent starters, from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +279 Elo | BAL 83.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 82.3% | 75% Elo, 25% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 77.8% | 93% market, 8% Elo | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Yards per play counts passes, sacks and runs, with sack yardage taken off.
| BAL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 3225.4 | Points scored | 16.229th of 32 |
| 25th of 3226.1 | Points allowed | 23.418th of 32 |
| 18th of 32−0.7 | Margin | −7.228th of 32 |
| 11th of 325.67 | Yards per play | 4.1032nd of 32 |
| 26th of 325.70 | Yards allowed per play | 4.705th of 32 |
| 12th of 322–2 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 32 |
| 2nd of 321552 | Opponent Elo | 15228th of 32 |
| 7th of 321622 | Elo rating | 135728th of 32 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 4–5 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 0–2 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 6–3 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–2 CLE in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.